Football is a team game, but there are a few players and position groups whose contributions will have a significant impact on which team will win Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.
There’s a lot riding on this game for both teams. For the Chiefs, there’s the opportunity to play in a record fifth Super Bowl over a six-year span, along with the chance to make history by getting to within one win of becoming the first franchise to win three straight Super Bowls. For the Bills, it’s snapping the franchise’s 31-year drought without a Super Bowl appearance. Buffalo, which is still in search of its first Super Bowl win, would also earn the distinction of ending the Chiefs’ pursuit of history.
Obviously, the usual suspects — quarterbacks Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, among others — will have a big say in which will go on to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. But each team also has an X factor who will also loom large in Sunday’s outcome.
Let’s take a look at each team’s X factor, starting with the two-time defending champs.
Chiefs: Receiving corps
While successful, the Chiefs offense has become largely predictable. Everything continues to run through Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce. Xavier Worthy and Kareem Hunt have their moments, and few others contribute from a statistical standpoint.
Kansas City’s offense operated this way during its divisional round win over the Texans. Kelce caught seven passes for a season-high 117 yards and a touchdown. Hunt scored a touchdown and gained 44 of Kansas City’s 50 yards on the ground. Worthy caught five of his six targets and was the only Chiefs wide receiver to catch a pass.
Yes, you read that right. Worthy was the only Chiefs wide receiver who caught a pass last week. The fact that they won that game despite no other contributions from a wideout is honestly staggering, but it’s hard to fathom the Chiefs continuing to win this way.
Every NFL team has some Achilles’ heel; the team that wins the Super Bowl is often the team that has the smallest one and doesn’t allow it to derail its season. The Chiefs’ recent lack of production from their receivers (and running backs, for that matter) hasn’t hurt them yet, but it will if it continues on Sunday.
Is this fixable? Absolutely. The Chiefs have a possible future Hall of Famer in DeAndre Hopkins and a former 1,000-yard receiver in Marquise Brown.
Hopkins has been dealing with a knee injury all season, so it’s safe to wonder whether the injury is the reason why his production has fallen off, following a fast start after joining the Chiefs via a trade from Tennessee. Brown, who missed the season’s first 15 games with an injury, said that he wasn’t sweating his lack of involvement in the win over Houston.
“You always want to catch passes,” Brown said. “But I felt like I had a really good game, ran really good routes. So the ball will come. But I was glad I was able to just play and put some good stuff on film.”
I’m banking on Brown making an impact Sunday similar to the ones he made during his first two games as a Chief. While he didn’t light up the stat sheet, Brown had several big plays in both games that included a 12-yard catch on a fourth-down play that set up the Chiefs’ first touchdown during their Week 16 win over the Texans.
With Brown in the lineup, the Chiefs now have the league’s fastest duo of receivers with Brown and Worthy. It’s time that they put that advantage to use.
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Bills: It’s ‘Miller time’
There are two common threads in Mahomes’ three playoff losses. Each of those losses came against teams led by quarterbacks Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. The other commonality is the opponent’s ability to pressure Mahomes while getting the three-time Super Bowl MVP off of his game.
A year after being constantly hounded by Tampa Bay’s pass rushers in the Super Bowl, Mahomes was once again under siege as the Chiefs were upset by the Bengals in the 2021 AFC title game. Rest assured that the Bills are hoping to apply similar pressure to Mahomes on Sunday night.
Buffalo has to apply that type of pressure if it’s going to end Kansas City’s reign atop the AFC. Like Brady, Mahomes (who was sacked three times by the Texans and was hurried on several other throws) is virtually unstoppable when he isn’t pressured, but he is notably less effective when under duress.
Buffalo registered two sacks of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in last week’s divisional win over Baltimore while also coming up with a big forced fumble that was scooped up by Von Miller, a future Hall of Famer who has a history of making big plays in the postseason.
In 2015, Miller was named Super Bowl MVP after sacking reigning league MVP Cam Newton 2.5 times and forcing two fumbles in the Broncos’ Super Bowl 50 victory over the Carolina Panthers. In 2021, he led all postseason players in sacks while helping the Rams capture their first Super Bowl title as a Los Angeles-based team.
The Bills have other formidable pass rushers that include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa. But the big X factor here is Miller, who appears to be back to being closer to his All-Pro form after missing all of last season to recover from a knee injury. Prior to last week’s win over Baltimore, Miller had led the NFL in quarterback pressure rate since Week 13.
Just as he did with the Broncos and Rams, Miller is hoping to help the Bills get over the hump now.
“All these guys are ready to go,” Miller said of his younger teammates. “If they ask me some questions, I would love to share some of my experience. But the way we’re riding now, what the trajectory is, I’m just here as a resource. … Feed the confidence, let everybody know that we’re good enough to play in this game and win this game.”
While Miller and Co. will have to pressure Mahomes, the Bills’ inside linebackers will have to focus on neutralizing his favorite weapons: tight ends Kelce and Noah Gray, who was second on the team in touchdown catches during the regular season.
Specifically, the task of minimizing Kelce and Gray will largely fall on the shoulders of Matt Milano, one of the NFL’s best linebackers as far as pass coverage is concerned. Milano, in addition to knocking down Jackson’s first two-point pass attempt last week, led the Bills in pressures during Buffalo’s win over Baltimore. He was a big reason why Buffalo won last week, and he will again be a big reason for the Bills’ success if they are able to upset the Chiefs.
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