2026 MLB Wild Card Series predictions: Staff picks for every playoff matchup

The MLB Postseason opens on Tuesday with wall-to-wall baseball as the Wild Card Series gets underway. You can watch all of the drama unfold on NBC, Peacock, and NBCSN. Before the action gets started, we asked the Rotoworld Baseball staff for their picks on who will advance and how it’s likely to happen.

Bissell: “I’ve made the mistake in previous years believing that San Diego’s extraordinary bullpen would be the difference in a shortened series. It could happen this time around, but it hasn’t been this unstoppable force in the playoffs over the last few years. The Cubs represent the immovable object in their metaphorical path after leading the majors in runs scored this season. Chicago has too much offensive firepower to envision a scenario where a Pete Crow-Armstrong-led lineup, which features a plethora of veteran bats and a healthy Alex Bregman following his recent injury scare, is completely shut down for multiple games.”

Short: With the Padres and Cubs, we have the two best offenses in the majors during the second half. I think too much is being made of Chicago having a major advantage in that area. The true advantage in this series comes down to pitching, and that’s where the Padres separate themselves. This is especially the case when it comes down to the bullpens. In a short series such as this, I expect Craig Stammen to lean into his strength.

Shovein: While we haven’t seen these two teams meet up since the first half of the season, the Cubs owned the season series against the Padres, taking five out of six games — including a 23-3 drubbing at Wrigley Field in their final matchup. The Cubs also come in rocking one of the best offenses in all of baseball. They posted the best OPS in baseball against left-handed pitching during the regular season and the third best marks against right-handers. They hit well against everyone. The Padres on the other hand, ranked in the middle of the pack against both. This is a major advantage for the Cubs. The Padres have the slight edge in the pitching department, with Michael King starting in Game 1 and then Nick Pivetta and Robbie Ray in some order in the next two contests. The Cubs will counter with Kevin Gausman if he’s healthy enough to go, otherwise it’ll likely be Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga. The Padres also have a major edge with their lockdown bullpen that features the best closer in all of baseball in Mason Miller. Baseball’s stars tend to shine the brightest in the postseason though and Pete Crow-Armstrong has undoubtedly been the best player in all of baseball this year. I expect him to shine brightly on the game’s biggest stage, leading the Cubs past the Padres and into the NLCS.

Pouliot: What we have here is a matchup between the two weakest teams in the postseason, one that looks even worse on paper than it actually is just because of the lack of notable starting pitchers; Houston’s Hunter Brown is the only starter a casual fan would recognize in play for either team this series. And because Brown would be on short rest in Game 1, the series will kick off with a bullpen battle, drawing the ire of pretty much everyone watching.

All of that said, there’s still fun to be had here. The Astros’ long run of success could have finally been declared over if they hadn’t held off the Rangers at the finish. The White Sox are trending very much in the other direction after becoming the first team ever to make the postseason following consecutive 100-loss seasons (actually three in a row). Apart from Andrew Benintendi, everyone in their lineup is under 27, and while their rotation leaves much to be desired, Game 1 is set to feature both Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz, two top draft picks who could become big names in short order. Give the Astros the edge, as they possess the best hitter, starter and reliever involved in the series, but if they can’t close it out with Brown in Game 2, they could be disadvantaged by the White Sox’s depth in Game 3.

Short: The Astros boast the familiar names and the postseason experience, so on paper they should probably be the favorites. The Astros hold the slight pitching edge by virtue of Hunter Brown (probably pitching in Game 2) and Josh Hader, but it was the White Sox who actually had the better bullpen this season. Expect Will Venable to play the matchups against Houston’s powerful lineup. The White Sox are no slouches in the power department either, with Munetaka Murakami and Miguel Vargas leading the way. Much has been made of the team’s penchant for the strikeout, but the White Sox are far from one-dimensional, as they draw plenty of walks and have a clear speed advantage over Houston. The little things should help the White Sox advance.

Shovein: No one is going to take the Astros seriously as they stroll into the postseason with the worst record among all playoff teams at 81-81. They’ve already been playing postseason baseball for a week though as they have battled to win the American League West, winning three of their last four in must-win games. They played especially well in their last two, beating the A’s by a combined score of 22-2. Conversely, the White Sox struggled for most of the month of September, lost the American League Central to the Guardians and wound up clinging to a Wild Card spot. Yordan Alvarez will be the American League MVP and he’ll terrorize the White Sox’ pitching throughout this series. The Astros also have a wealth of playoff experience to draw on while it’s the White Sox’ first time in the tournament since 2021. It also matters that these games are being played in Houston. It’s possible that the upstart White Sox steal a game, but I just don’t see them overcoming the battle-tested Astros here.

Crawford: It wouldn’t shock me if Philadelphia pulled the upset off, even if they backed into the playoffs so hard you could hear the truck sounds from Scranton. But Atlanta is just the more complete team, they’re one the best teams in baseball at home, and the fact that Zack Wheeler would only be available on short rest makes me even more reticent to believe that they have a long stay. The star power of Philadelphia is palpable, but give me Atlanta in two.

Short: I’m not as confident in the Braves sweeping their way through the Wild Card Series. The Phillies still possess top-end talent and pose a serious threat despite making the playoffs by the skin of their teeth. The key is Game 1 and what the Braves get from Chris Sale. If he can do his job and get the W, the Braves will win this series. If he can’t, it’s wide open. I’m predicting that he will get the job done and the Braves move on.

Short: With Aaron Judge and Willson Contreras, each team carries a significant injury question going into the series. Not only if they’ll be active, but how they’ll perform after a layoff. However, this obscures the real X-factor in this series, which is the strength of the Yankees’ pitching staff. The Yankees had the best pitching in the sport this season and I expect their top-three of Cam Schlittler, Max Fried, and Gerrit Cole to carry them through to the ALDS. Still, I’m very surprised at how this vote played out and firmly believe this could be the most competitive series of them all.

Samulski: “Because everybody else picked the Yankees.”

But, sure, let’s go with…

I have a bias here, but I think this could break right for the Red Sox. Aaron Judge is not likely to play or won’t be 100% if he does. Willson Contreras will be back in the Red Sox lineup with Roman Anthony, Trevor Story, Adley Rutschman and Ceddanne Rafaela. We haven’t seen them all together essentially at all this season. With Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez, the Red Sox have a solid and experienced top-three. Plus they’ll likely add Garrett Crochet to a bullpen that includes Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman. This is a series they could pull out.