Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: Henry Bolte in on fire, Pete Crow-Armstrong will not stop

Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

Understanding who’s stealing bases is even more important this time of year because with so much of the season already gone, it’s difficult to find ways to rise up in most categories. Yet, steals often have the least volume of all the categories, so the breadth isn’t as wide and a few shrewd moves can help you earn a lot of roto points.

Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.

Full Season Stolen Base Leaders

There have been very few changes to this leaderboard over the past few weeks. So, I’m introducing a new, more timely one right here.

Second Half Stolen Base Leaders

Just as Jazz Chisholm Jr. was finally breaking out of his season-long slump, he landed on the injured list with a sprained right thumb. Anthony Volpe will come up to take his roster spot.

Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders

Henry Bolte is on a heater. Along with those five stolen bases over the past week, he went 10-for-25 with three home runs and a 1.345 OPS. He has unbelievable tools and while it’s taken him a bit to acclimate to the big league game, it seems like he’s turned the corner and needs to be rostered in every single league.

Before swiping three bags in his last four games, Sal Stewart stole just one in the 70 games prior.

It’s nice to see that aggressiveness from Oneil Cruz on the basepaths now that he’s been off the injured list for a few weeks.

Stolen Base Disappointments

While a calf injury and the Mets falling out of contention early has likely caused Juan Soto to be less aggressive on the base paths, not even cracking 10 stolen bases this season is a disappointment.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

The Cardinals allowed the most stolen bases over the past week with 10 across seven games.

Three of those came in one of the two games that Iván Herrera started at catcher. He was replaced for a pinch-runner in the other.

Herrera has appeared on this column a few times this season because he’s a poor defensive player and has only caught two of 45 would-be base stealers all season. That 4% caught stealing rate is worst in the league among all players who’ve caught at least 200 innings.To make matters worse, that’s only come in 50 starts behind the plate.

Otherwise, the Cardinals promoted Leo Bernal last week when the rosters expanded and he may be their catcher of the future. A switch-hitter with real power from each side of the plate, Bernal had 16 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 115 wRC+ through 101 games at Triple-A this season as a 22-year-old with a strong underlying profile to match. He’s also started nine games in a row since being called up.

He figures to be a solid offensive contributor in the near-term with potential for much more in the future, but leaves a bit to be desired on the defensive side. Especially compared to Pedro Pagés, who seems to be the third catcher on the Cardinals depth chart now. That change suddenly makes the Cardinals one of the best teams to stream stolen bases against.

They’re matched up with the White Sox and Giants over the next week. So, Tristan Peters, Sam Antonacci, Jonah Cox, Jung-Hoo Lee, and Osleivis Basabe are solid options if you’re seeking speed.

What Happened to the 30-30s?

A few weeks ago, Pete Crow-Armstong stole his 30th base to join the 30-30 club for the second consecutive season. He’s since pushed forward by clearing 40 home runs and is approaching 40 stolen bases as he marches towards his first MVP award.

CJ Abrams is on pace to go 30-30 as well with 30 home runs and 28 stolen bases entering play on Wednesday. Besides them, Elly De La Cruz could get there too with 25 home runs and stolen bases apiece, but it would take some late season heroics for any other player to reach that milestone.

When the league altered the rules to make bases easier to steal ahead of the 2023 season, 30-30 seasons sky-rocketed. In the three full seasons before the change, there were only three players who went 30-30: Christian Yelich and Ronald Acuña Jr. in 2019 and Cedric Mullins in 2021.

Between 2023 and 2025, it happened 14 times. That included some extremes like Acuña swiping 73, Shohei Ohtani going 50-50, and Juan Soto beating his former career-best in steals by 26 bags.

That trend seems to have stopped this season as stolen bases have dried up a tad. Maybe teams are more prepared to control the run game or there’s more risk-averse behavior going on from a base running perspective. Either way, it’s a break from what we thought was the new norm.