Regardless of how it happened, it’s happening.
For the first time ever, Congress is taking a careful look at the NFL’s longstanding broadcast antitrust exemption.
On Wednesday, the House Judiciary Committee held a two-hour (and then some) hearing on the issue. And the concern regarding the league’s apparent skirting of the limits of the exemption, which arguably applies only to league-wide packages sold to broadcast networks, seemed to be bipartisan.
Multiple Democratic members of the Committee questioned the decision to focus on the NFL’s broadcast antitrust exemption at a time when the administration is pushing multiple media mergers that consolidate networks and, in turn, impact consumers.
Looming over the hearing was the reality that much of the current political scrutiny of the NFL’s antitrust exemption traces to Fox owner Rupert Murdoch, whose network faces a potential effort by the league to get more money under contracts that apply through the 2029 season.
Perhaps not coincidentally, Murdoch employee Clay Travis testified at the hearing — and he pulled no punches about the impact of the NFL’s embrace of streaming on football fans. Although most of what he said is accurate, none of it will mend fences between NFL and Fox. And that could further jeopardize Fox’s ability to retain an NFL package after 2029.
It would be a stunning move, if it happens. Fox arrived as a disruptor in 1994, snatching the Sunday afternoon NFC package from CBS and holding it for 32 years and counting.
Murdoch doesn’t seem to care. He has drawn a line in the sand, and he has been willing to use everything at his disposal to get the NFL to tread lightly when it comes to the potential sale of more games to streamers.
It’s still possible that Fox will end up without a package come 2030. But where would it go? Unless NBC or ABC are willing to take over, there would be no broadcast partner for the collection of Sunday afternoon games.
Maybe that’s how it eventually goes. Fox exits. NBC or ABC takes the traditional NFC package (which is no longer strictly tied to NFC games), and NBC or ABC assumes Monday Night Football. Prime Video adds the Sunday night games.
That would leave the Thursday night window. Would Prime Video keep it? Would Netflix want it?
Through it all, the question is whether the federal government is serious about enforcing the existing antitrust exemption or rescinding it. For now, there’s plenty of smoke. Time will tell whether the NFL’s house ends up on fire.
And whether Fox ends up where it was before 1994: Without an NFL broadcast deal.
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