Fantasy Baseball Hitters to Target: Adding Curtis Mead, Coby Mayo, more based on recent stats

It’s time for another custom leaderboard! We’re now more than two full months into the season, which means it’s time to start really looking at the standings to see where you stack up. It’s no longer just a cold start or bad luck. Your team may need some real changes. In order to help with that, I’ve created a leaderboard to identify some hitters we can be targeting in all league types.

I took all hitters who had at least 40 plate appearances in May and then took hard-hit rate, zone contact rate, swinging strike rate (SwStr%), and their EV90. Using 90th percentile exit velocity is a bit like hard-hit rate, I’ll admit, but it tells me which hitters can consistently get to the high-end exit velocities that usually lead to better results. I then removed every hitter who was below league average in each category. The league average hard-hit rate is 38.7%. The average zone contact is 86.9%, and the league average EV90 is 104.5 mph. Lastly, the average swinging strike rate is 10.7%, and this is the one where I’ll fudge the threshold the most. Some of the hitters just missed in certain categories because we know it’s logical to assume a player can have a slightly elevated swinging strike rate (within reason) and produce if they hit the ball hard and make good contact in the zone.

What was left was a leaderboard of hitters who rarely swing and miss overall, make lots of contact in the strike zone, and hit the ball hard when they do make contact. Obviously, other things go into whether a hitter succeeds or not, but this leaderboard gave us plenty of elite hitters, like Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson, Bobby Witt Jr., James Wood, Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna Jr., Junior Caminero, Jose Ramirez, Corbin Carroll, Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger, Andy Pages, Yandy Daiz, Ketel Marte, Brice Turang, Mike Trout, and Willson Contreras. That makes me feel like we’re on the right track.

However, telling you that those guys should continue to produce doesn’t help you at all, so this article is, instead, going to focus on the hitters who made the leaderboard who are still available on many waiver wires, and others who I think could be more accessible in trade talks, given their public perception. So let’s dive in.

All stats are from May 1st to June 1st, and all roster percentages are from Fantasy Pros! estimation across all league types and platforms.

Fantasy Baseball Hitters To Target on Waivers

I’ve covered a few of these hitters before. In particular, Isaac Collins keeps appearing on these leaderboards, including the article I wrote on players who should produce more home runs, because of his quality of contact and the amount of contact. The entire Royals offense is a bit of a mess, but it might happen for Collins soon. I’ve also covered Coby Mayo in a few articles, including the same one linked above, but he’s really coming around lately. In 71 plate appearances in May, he had a 58% hard-hit rate, 89.1% zone contact rate, 10.5% SwStr%, and 109.8 mph EV90. While that didn’t immediately lead to success, he hit .300/.404/.575 with three home runs, eight runs scored, and seven RBI over the final 13 games of the month. Perhaps that was him turning a corner?

Lastly, a few of these catches (Mickey Gasper, Dillon Dingler) are more for two-catcher leagues, but I wanted to include them on here. I’ve also discussed Nathaniel Lowe a bunch, but he’s only 5% rostered in Yahoo formats and is starting against all right-handed pitching in Cincinnati, even with Eugenio Suarez back. He hit just .247 in 81 plate appearances in May, but that came with a 41.7% hard-hit rate, 88.2% zone contact rate, 8.8% swinging strike rate, and 107.8 mph EV90, so the approach and contact quality are still there.

Curtis Mead – 1B/3B, Washington Nationals (17% rostered)

I’ve written a lot about Curtis Mead over the last month. He was in that same article on hitters who should produce more power, as well as in a video I recorded about his recent production. The 23-year-old former top 40 overall prospect started the season with the White Sox but was traded to the Nationals in March. He had good batted ball data early in the season but was limited to playing only against left-handed pitching in the weeks after the Nationals called him up from Triple-A. We were just hoping he would finally get a chance to earn every day at-bats, and it seems like the demotion of Brady House to Triple-A allowed for that.

In 85 plate appearances in May (about 40 appearances below regular starters), Mead hit .261/.400/.507 with four home runs, 13 RBI, and 14 runs scored. That came with a 48.1% hard-hit rate, 90.9% zone contact rate, and 6.2% SwStr%. His exit velocities aren’t off the charts, but his 89.6 mph average exit velocity is over two mph better than his career average. He flattened his swing a bit this year and is looking to pull and lift the ball more than usual, which will make the most out of his solid but not elite exit velocities. Among 260 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances this season, Mead ranks 52nd with a Pull Air% of 22.9%. His exit velocity on his fly balls and line drives is 93 mph, which is the same as Cal Raleigh, Cody Bellinger, and Salvador Perez, so that will be just fine for power production. The only issue to watch for here is Mead’s defense. He has been a shockingly below-average first baseman in his 391 MLB innings and is just league average at third base. If the Nationals decide he’s not a good enough defender to play in the field every day, it will get much harder to be a regular player as just a designated hitter.

Dylan Crews – OF, Washington Nationals (30% rostered)

We should also mention Mead’s teammate, Dylan Crews, another former top prospect who began the year in the minors. Since being recalled from Triple-A, Crews is hitting just .220/.256/.317 with one home run, one steal, and three RBI, but some good things are happening under the surface, which qualifying for this leaderboard should tell you. His exit velocities are up two mph from his career norms, he’s posting a 90.2% zone contact rate, and has an overall contact rate of nearly 79%, which is a clear improvement from the 71.6% mark we saw last year. He’s chasing too much, which is something the Nationals wanted him to work on, and I have no idea why he’s only swinging at 66% of pitches in the heart of the strike zone, but the overall contact profile looks better. We know that swing decisions can come and go when pushed by elite pitching, so Crews is going to need to get his 42% chase rate in check, but the fact that he’s chasing this much and still making a good amount of contact tells me that more time to settle in at this level could allow those changes to take root again, and we could get a June hot streak.

Jorge Mateo – SS/OF, Atlanta Braves (12% rostered)

Look, we’ve seen Mateo do this before. In 2023, when he was with the Orioles, he hit .347 with six home runs, 21 runs scored, 17 RBI, and 10 steals in just 23 games to start the season. It seemed like a full-on breakout. It was not. This season, in 52 plate appearances in May, Mateo hit .347/.384/.454 with three home runs, 13 runs scored, eight RBI, and five steals. He has seemingly wrestled the starting shortstop job away from Ha-Seong Kim and is even DHing against left-handed pitching recently. On the season, Mateo has 84 plate appearances, so it’s a small sample size, but his bat speed is up two mph, and his 90.5 mph average exit velocity is about three mph up from his career mark. He’s sporting a career-high 48.2% hard-hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate and is pulling the ball 50% of the time, which is way up from his 39.6% career average.

When you look at his attack direction on Statcast, you can see that the pull rate is intentional. The Braves have either changed his swing or his approach, and the sweet spot of his bat is now seven degrees towards the pull side when he’s making contact with the ball. Last season, it was zero degrees. However, apart from that, his swing decisions are basically the same. His chase rate, zone swing rate, overall swing rate, and contact rate on pitches outside of the zone are nearly identical to what he’s done in his career. His zone contact rate is up from last year, but right in line with his career norms; the same goes for his overall contact rate and swinging strike rate. What that means is that we’re likely getting the same player but with a quicker bat and a more pull-happy approach. That can certainly lead to more authoritative contact, but I don’t think that alone is going to finally cause Mateo to break out at 31 years old. Treat this like an Ildemaro Vargas-style hot streak.

Michael Massey – 2B, Kansas City Royals (1% rostered)

If we were being strict about EV90, Massey would not be on this list (neither would Michael Busch, Justin Foscue, Nolan Arenado, Andrew Vaughn, Zack Gelof, Jose Ramirez, Gunnar Henderson, and more). Massey’s 102.2 mph EV90 is the lowest of any hitter on this list. We can use that as a knock against him, but he also posted a 41.5% hard-hit rate, 92.6% zone contact rate, and 9.3% swinging strike rate in May. That led him to hit three home runs and drive in eight runs in 65 plate appearances while also hitting .245/.265/.459 with just a .244 BABIP. This year, Massey’s bat speed is up two mph, his average exit velocity (91.2 mph) is 2.4 mph above his career average, and his 10.4% barrel rate is amost 3% higher than his career mark. He’s done that by trying NOT to pull the ball as much. For much of his career, Massey has been very pull-happy, and then last year, he started to lift the ball a lot too. This year, he’s still lifting the ball over 50% of the time, but he’s not actively trying to pull everything, and the sweet spot of his bat is positioned more towards center field as it travels through the zone. That has allowed him to drive the ball into the gaps, but with exit velocities that can still carry it out of the park when he gets out in front of one. This is a player who has always made an above-average quantity of contact, so if the quality of that contact continues to be near this level, Massey could easily hit 10 home runs the rest of the way with a solid .240-.250 average that would make him 15-team viable.

Vaughn Grissom – 1B/2B/3B, Los Angeles Angels (2% rostered)

The results haven’t been there for Grissom. In 94 plate appearances in May, he hit .190/.265/.309 with two home runs and five runs scored. However, that did come with 19 RBI and a .194 BABIP, which is comically low. Grissom also posted a 50% hardd-hit rate, 88% zone contact rate, and 9.7% SwStr%, so he’s hitting the ball harder and making lots of contact. After spending two years in the Red Sox organization, Grissom’s bat speed is up three mph, which feels relevant because we know Boston is intense about the bat speed training they do in the minor leagues. Grissom is also pulling the ball and lifting the ball almost 10% more than when we last saw him in MLB action. Over his last nine games, he’s hitting .273/.342/.455 with one home run, five runs scored, and 11 RBI. That could be a small sample size mirage, but we just discussed how good his underlying metrics were for the entire month of May, so it might also be the results simply catching up. Remember that he also flashed when I looked at Process+ and was the 23rd-ranked hitter over one month when I posted this on May 24th. Maybe it’s clicking now?

Justin Foscue – 1B/2B, Texas Rangers (2% rostered)

I mentioned that Foscue’s EV90 wasn’t great. It’s actually the 4th-lowest of any hitter on this leaderboard at 102.5 mph. However, he had a 47.5% hard-hit rate in May, so the exit velocity numbers didn’t hurt him there. Foscue also had a 89.7% zone contact rate and 9.6% SwStr%, so he made plenty of contact and plenty of good contact. The issue is that this led to a solid but not elite .254/.300/.418 slash line in 60 plate appearances with two home runs and seven RBI. With Corey Seager set to start a rehab assignment soon, Foscue may need the results to start to click in because Seager’s return is going to push Ezequiel Duran off of shortstop, and the Rangers are going to need to keep Duran in the lineup.

Bryce Eldridge – UT, San Francisco Giants (8% rostered)

When Eldridge was first called up, the Giants openly said they were not going to force him into the lineup every day. While that upset fans, it made some sense. Eldridge is only a 1B or DH and is really more of a DH. The Giants had Rafael Devers, and Casey Schmitt, who is also on this leaderboard, was enjoying a career year. There wasn’t a clear path for Eldridge. Yet, the injury to Heliot Ramos allowed the Giants to try Schmitt in the outfield and free up a spot for Eldridge, and the rookie has responded. In 67 plate appearances in May, he hit .241/.328/.448 with a 56.8% hard-hit rate, 89.1% zone contact rate, and 10% SwStr%. That came with a 105.9 mph EV90 and also a .285 BABIP that feels like it could have, and should have, been higher. Sure, Eldridge expands the strike zone a little more than we’d like to see, but the swinging strike rate hasn’t been bad because when he does expand the zone, it’s usually on pitches that are just off the plate, so his contact rate on pitches outside of the zone isn’t that bad. He’s hitting more line drives this year than we saw last year, which may limit the power output initially, but I’m OK with that because you want a rookie to make hard contact and gain confidence. Plus, he has the power to drive the ball out of the ballpark even without forcing it. The only question is what happens when the Giants’ outfielders come back from injury.

Blaze Alexander – 2B/3B/OF, Baltimore Orioles (3% rostered)

We’ll end with a player who has been incredibly productive of late but doesn’t have a full-time job. In 68 plate appearances in May, Alexander hit .365/.402/.508 with 13 RBI and three steals. That came with a 45.8% hardhit rate, 87.9% zone contact, 10.9% SwStr%, and a 105.7 mph EV90. His overall exit velocity (92.1 mph average) is up two mph from his career mark, and he has a career-high 46.7% hard-hit rate on the season. He’s increased his launch angle a bit and made his swing a touch steeper, but that’s leading to a big jump in line drive rate. He’s also using the whole field more often than he did last season, which, in my opinion, is really helping the batting average, along with changes to the attack direction of the sweet spot of his bat through contact. Alexander is also being far more aggressive than he was last year, primarily on pitches in the heart of the zone, swinging 85.4% this year after posting just a 72.8% mark last year. Yes, that aggressive approach has led to more swing-and-miss than we’d like to see, but his results in May were better when it came to that and to his contact rates. He also has six steals in 138 plate appearances this season, so if he were ever to land in a larger role, he could be a solid source of batting average and stolen bases.

Fantasy Baseball Hitters To Target in Trades

As the title of the section makes clear, these are all hitters I think you can look to target in trades, because their public perception is likely lower than their actual value. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the biggest name on this list, and his fantasy manager isn’t going to give him away, but there has been so much talk about his lack of home run production that the cost to acquire him might be low. I don’t expect the home runs to magically appear – I think he’s a true talent 20/25-home run hitter – but everything else looks really good.

Andrew Vaughn was recently dropped in two 12-team leagues I’m in, which tells me that some people are tired of waiting for him to get back to his old role, and I know many people don’t view Casey Schmitt as being for real. There’s also lots of discussion about Chase DeLauter being propped up by his hot start, and James Schiano and I get asked about Tyler Soderstrom most weeks in our Monday Q&As. Vaughn has the most questionable quality of contact of that group, but he’s coming off hamate bone surgery, so that’s not surprising. All three made lots of contact in the zone in May, don’t expand the zone much, and hit the ball hard when they do make contact.

Part of the reason Vaughn is getting dropped in some leagues is that Jake Bauers just continues to hit and play every day. However, Bauers has also played some left field lately to get both of them into the lineup, and I think we could see that a bit more in the future.

I also just wanted to highlight how good a season Bryan Reynolds is having because I don’t think many people truly realize it. Now, his fantasy managers might, so you might not be able to trade for him, but he’s been tremendous this year. The same goes for Otto Lopez, who is having an under-the-radar strong season.

Bo Bichette is such an interesting name on here. It’s been an unquestionably bad season for Bichette, who is hitting .213/.271/.299 with five home runs and 28 RBI. However, his exit velocities and hard-hit rates are right in line with his career averages. His 7.4% barrel rate is just below his career average but not a terrible mark. His bat speed is the same, his contact rates are the best they’ve ever been, and he’s still swinging about as often as he did last year. I guess the things that stand out most are that he’s swinging 4% less often than he did in his best years, and he continues to refuse to pull the ball with just a 23% pull rate this season. I really don’t see a bad hitter here or somebody who has “fallen off.” I see a hitter who has perhaps gotten too passive or has not adjusted to constantly being pitched away. There is a fix here; I’m just not sure if Bichette can make it.

Speaking of the Mets, plenty of people were piling on how bad the Brandon Nimmo trade was when he started the season hot. He has cooled down since then, but his quality of contact in May remained really solid. He hit just .214 in the month, but he had a 56.1% hard-hit rate, an 88.7% zone contact rate, and a 7.9% SwStr% with a 105.7 mph EV90. That’s a lot of really good contact. On the season, he still has a 12.6% barrel rate with his highest line drive rate since 2021. I think another strong stretch of production is coming.