Fantasy baseball starting pitcher buy/sell: Andrew Abbott, Trey Yesavage, Emmet Sheehan, more

We’re about to head into the All-Star break, which means we’re more than halfway through the fantasy baseball season. By now, you know if you have a team that could contend for a title or not, and you know what categories you need to make it happen. If one of your weaknesses is pitching, this article could hopefully help you push your way to the top.

I wanted to look at starting pitchers who have over or underperformed in recent weeks and could be good players to trade for or trade away. I created a leaderboard of some of the most actionable in-season stats (SIERA, K-BB%, Stuff+, and Location+) and sorted for all starters who have thrown at least 20 innings since May 15th. This way, we’re not just getting hot or cold stretches from the start of the season, but getting a picture of who this pitcher is now.

After that, I tried to sort not just by SIERA underachievers or overachievers, but I looked at who was well below league-average in K-BB%, Location+, or Stuff+ to see who deserved better or worse results. I then took what I knew about their pitch mixes or recent production and tried to create a list of pitchers who we should want to acquire or want to move on from.

Just a CRUCIAL NOTE that this is not a blind “trade for” to the top list and “trade away” the bottom list. Many pitchers on the bottom list are pitchers who I like but simply believe are currently producing better than we should expect going forward. They would only be pitchers to trade in the right deal, so make sure you read the analysis.

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers to Buy

LEAGUE-WIDE AVERAGES FROM MAY 15th ON: SIERA (4.12), K-BB% (14%), STUFF+ (99), LOCATION+ (102)

There were a few pitchers who made this list that I’m not sure you can really “Buy.” Guys like Jacob deGrom, George Kirby, Eury Perez, Nathan Eovaldi, Bryan Woo, Nolan McLean, Jesus Luzardo, and Gavin Williams. However, if fantasy managers are worried about some recent poor ERA numbers, we wouldn’t be. The underlying skills remain strong, and I recorded a video on George Kirby this week, so you can watch that for more detailed analysis. I also don’t think people in your league will trade away Braxton Ashcraft, but if anybody is worried about his 3.83 ERA over 54 innings since May 15th, I would be happy to acquire him. There looks to be very little difference between what he’s doing over this stretch and what he did at the start of the season. He’s still a top 25 starting pitcher for me.

There are also a few guys who made this leaderboard who I wouldn’t “Buy” but I also would not sell. Both Shota Imanaga and Sandy Alcantara have better SIERA’s than ERAs. Both of them are putting up strong Location+ grades, and Sandy has a league-average Stuff+ rating. In truth, Sandy has just been a solid, slightly above-average starter based on most of his metrics this season. In a shallower format, maybe that’s a streamer, but I also think you’re fine just holding him and benching him against tougher opponents. Imanaga’s stuff has taken a step back of late. His fastball velocity has been mediocre, and some of the iVB is down. Plus, his splitter has not been as effective. Still, I think this is more of a rough patch than anything, and he was fine in his last outing against the Padres. I think Imanaga is just more of an SP3 for your fantasy teams than a potential ace or SP2.

Similarly, some guys are pitching well right now and have underlying metrics that support their current production, but don’t suggest any additional steps are coming. Guys like Dustin May, Jake Bennett, and Sean Burke have earned their recent strong production and don’t need to be guys you’re looking to move on from. If you want a more detailed analysis of them, I spoke with Dustin May two weeks ago and wrote an article about his season, I covered Sean Burke in my starting pitcher streamers article this week, and Jake Bennett was featured in our waiver wire article.

I should also note that Tatsuya Imai made this list when looking at pitchers whose ERA is above their SIERA. Since May 15th, Imai has a 3.15 SIERA but a 3.93 ERA. However, I can’t recommend him as a full-on buy. He also has a well-below-average 88 Stuff+ grade since that date, and I covered his recent success in my weekly streamers article, which you can read in full detail here. The abbreviated version is that he remains a two-pitch pitcher with a fastball that doesn’t miss bats, and that makes me feel like he remains a risky bet going forward unless we see some more tangible pitch mix changes. You can feel free to gamble on him because his results have been good in his last two starts, and he was great in Japan, but he is a roll of the dice.

Emmet Sheehan – Dodgers

A week ago, I recorded a video about why Sheehan was one of my favorite buy-low candidates. Not much has changed in my view. He has one of the biggest gaps between ERA and SIERA of any starter on this list. His 20% K-BB% since May 15th is far above the league average, and both his Stuff+ and Location+ are above average. His fastball velocity, which was a concern earlier in the year, has settled around 94.5 mph, and he seems to have all the pieces to put together a really good run in the second half.

Jared Jones- Pirates

Listen, you’re buying Jones because you know what type of pitcher he can be. His Location+ is actually above-average despite coming off Tommy John surgery, and the 14.5% K-BB% shows that he is missing bats. It’s not so much that he’s consistently missing his spots, but that he seems to have a few poorly executed pitches every game that just get teed off on. That’s not uncommon for a pitcher coming off elbow surgery, and I understand if he’s too inconsistent for you to trust right now, but I do think there will be much better days ahead.

Jack Flaherty – Tigers

I recorded a video this week about Flaherty’s return from the injured list. It was a really good outing, and these underlying metrics suggest he’s a major buy-low. I’m not ready to go that far. I have no problem in trying to acquire Flaherty, and I do acknowledge that he is missing tons of bats since May 15th. However, a huge part of his last outing was that his four-seam fastball velocity was up around 94 mph, and he was able to pound the strike zone with it up top while landing his secondaries low in the zone. When he does that, he’s really good. The issue is that he seems to struggle to do that consistently. I have trouble convincing myself it’s different now.

Joey Cantillo – Guardians

I’m gonna cheat and add Cantillo here because we’ve seen a massive change from him in three games since he added a cutter and leaned into his curveball more. His stats from May 15th on are not enough to get him to qualify, but he might be one of the higher upside arms on this list, and I covered his pitch mix change last week in my streaming starting pitcher article, so check that out for a detailed breakdown.

Aaron Nola – Phillies

Listen, I know Nola has been bad, but a 15% K-BB%, 106 Stuff+, and 105 Location+ tell us that so much of the process and raw skills are there. In this week’s streaming starting pitcher article, I talked about his new slider and his decreased use of fastballs, which are good developments. Pitchers that miss bats at the level Nola has been simply don’t have ERA’s this high. I understand that’s not a comfort because he’s not delivering right now, but I think the pitch mix changes and the whiffs are a good indication that better days are coming. I would still try to hold in deeper formats and be ready to add in shallower ones.

Kevin Gausman – Blue Jays

I recorded a video on Kevin Gausman on Wednesday, and I’m not sure you can “buy” him because most fantasy managers know that he frequently goes through struggle patches where his fastball struggles to miss bats and gets hit hard. Since he has such a limited pitch mix, that can lead to poor results. Yet, on Tuesday, we saw his four-seam velocity back up, and he missed back with both his slider and splitter. He should settle back into the Gausman you expected.

Brandon Sproat – Brewers

I covered Sproat in the same article as Nola, linked above. That was before his start on Tuesday, which was another really solid effort. That’s now five straight games where Sproat hasn’t issued more than two walks, as the Location+ grade is creeping up. As I mentioned in the article this week, Sproat is doing a better job of commanding his fastball up in the zone and his secondaries at the bottom for whiffs. He had a 17% swinging strike rate in four starts heading into last night and then had a 12% mark last night, so it’s been a solid five-start stretch for him. I would encourage you to read the article for the six paragraphs I wrote him, but I think Sproat is starting to figure things out with his arsenal, optimizing his pitch mix for more whiffs and locating his secondary pitches more consistently. We may be seeing a breakout happen here.

Jack Perkins – Athletics

When Perkins moved back into the A’s rotation, I wrote about him in my streaming starting pitcher article. In that article, I mentioned that Perkins had a flat four-seam fastball and a good sweeper, but had some struggled against lefties, so his cutter and new gyro slider could be crucial for him. The cutter finds the zone often, and the gyro slider can miss bats. He can then also mix in his four-seam fastball, which is not a great pitch for lefties. At the time, I said I could see how this CAN work, but it hasn’t yet. Well, we’ve seen two more starts since then, and things have started to click. Since May 15th, Perkins has a 3.76 SIERA, 18.4% K-BB%, and above-average Stuff+ and Location+. When you pair that with the analysis of his overall pitch mix, Perkins is one of my favorite picks for a “breakout” second half.

Cade Cavalli – Nationals

I’ve said a few times this year that I think Cavalli will be an inconsistent starter who will have periods of strong production when his curveball is leading the way, kind of like we’ve seen with Framber Valdez, Aaron Nola, and Charlie Morton in recent seasons. However, the curve has been his only plus pitch, and the four-seamer simply doesn’t miss bats. Well, recently, the velocity on his four-seamer and sinker is up, and he has introduced a cutter which gives him another strike pitch against lefties. I recorded a video on Cavalli today, but if the cutter command and fastball velocity maintain, we could see a legit second-half breakout.

Roki Sasaki – Dodgers

I covered Sasaki in the same article above that I covered Perkins in. In that article, I mentioned that Sasaki seemed to add vertical movement on his four-seamer and locate it better, and also do a better job locating his slider down in the zone. That has been a big component in his recent success. Now, there have been some inconsistent starts because his location and feel for his pitches comes and goes a bit, but he has earned his recent 4.19 ERA and is probably pitching slightly better than that, so if fantasy managers in your league feel like an implosion is coming, I would still take shares of Sasaki,

Ryan Weathers – Yankees

My podcast partner Nick Pollack did a 20-minute breakout on Ryan Weathers’ last start, and my analysis is not going to be as detailed as that, so I encourage you to watch Nick’s breakdown. I’m still in on Weathers myself because he continues to miss bats and the Location+ grade is still well above-average, even if we think he’s been struggling of late. We know Weathers hasn’t pitched a full season before, and there could be some fatigue or inconsistency as the season wears on, but if people have dropped Weathers, I’m OK taking a gamble here.

Jake Bennett – Red Sox

Bennett is coming off two outings against the Rockies in Coors and the Yankees at Fenway. In those outings, he showed the ability to be what Nick Pollack and I refer to as a SWATCH (Southpaw With a Tight Changeup). He has been locating the changeup down and away from righties really well and also peppered the top of the strike zone with four-seamers. He doesn’t throw hard, but his a five-pitch mix that, if commanded well, could be successful from the big left-hander who has elite extension. There will be some ups and downs, but Bennett gets the Angels, White Sox, and Rays next, which could be a decent run, and he might stick in the rotation with Connelly Early’s recent elbow injury.

Connor Prielipp – Twins

Prielipp is somebody I was really into when he debuted because I think his slider is a legit elite pitch. The issue is that his four-seam fastball is just average, and his changeup wasn’t taking the step forward I wanted. However, he has seemed to settle in lately with a 4.05 SIERA, 14.3% K-BB%, and above-average Stuff+ and Location+. A big part of that has been that his curveball has improved in command and execution of late, which has done the job I wanted the changeup to do. With Mick Abel out for the season, Prielipp should remain in the rotation and is worth an add for his upside.

Landen Roupp – Giants

My recommendation to “buy” on Roupp is tepid. He’s had a rough stretch on and off the field of late with a 5.96 ERA and just a 97 Stuff+ since May 15th. I don’t think he’s that bad of a pitcher, but I don’t think he’s as good as he was to begin the year. His stuff is not elite, but he has good command and has a pitch mix that can attack all four quadrants with sinkers and cutters up in the zone and changeups and curves at the bottom. I would treat him as a 12-team streamer, but if he were dropped in 15-team leagues during this stretch, I would add him back.

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers to Sell

LEAGUE-WIDE AVERAGES FROM MAY 15th ON: SIERA (4.12), K-BB% (14%), STUFF+ (99), LOCATION+ (102)

There were a few pitchers who qualified that I didn’t want to put on here because I don’t think you should “Sell” them, but the leaderboard did tell us they wouldn’t keep pitching to their impressive current surface-level stats. Guys like Sonny Gray, Chase Burns, Logan Webb, Max Meyer, Bryce Miller, and Gerrit Cole. Even with minor regression, they will all still be very useful starting pitchers for you. Zack Wheeler also made that list, and I think it was important to point out that his 3.37 SIERA is well above his 1.99 ERA. I can’t believe he’s pitching this week, so I might lean more towards the SIERA than the ERA going forward, but maybe I’m just a doubter.

There are also a few pitchers that you don’t need a full breakdown for when I say that they won’t keep pitching at this level. Peter Lambert has been a great streamer and has a 3.51 ERA since May 15th, but his Stuff+ grade and his 10.2% K-BB% are below average. He’s a low-ceiling play that’s better for 15-teamers. Kyle Leahy has a 3.29 ERA in 52 innings since May 15th, but he has well below average stuff and isn’t missing many bats at all. It’s not a surprise that he has a 4.45 SIERA over this stretch, but I’m not sure you can trade him for anything, so you’re just going to ride this out. Same with his teammate Michael McGreevy, who got off to a hot start and has a 3.21 ERA since May 15th but also a 4.52 SIERA. His 82 Stuff+ grade and 8.7% K-BB% are some of the lowest of any pitcher on this entire list, but he makes up for it with a 111 Location+. That’s just not a profile I can trust over the course of a full season because I think hitters are too good and start to take advantage of poor stuff. We’ve also seen Eric Lauer thrive with the Dodgers, and he has a 3.49 ERA over his last 28.1 innings. That comes with a 4.89 SIERA, just an 8.6% K-BB% and an 88 Stuff+ grade. I have Lauer in a few places and am just riding the decent production and good win totals with the Dodgers, but I’m not expecting this to last, and I would recommend you don’t either.

Lastly, we all know that Eduardo Rodriguez is not as good as a 2.17 ERA over 54 innings since May 15th. However, I think his 4.58 SIERA is also too high. He’s a solid pitcher who is really hitting his spots well right now, and we’ve seen him put together strong stretches of production throughout his career when he’s doing this. We also need to acknowledge that his raw stuff has not gotten any better; it’s arguably gotten worse, so if the locations were to start to worsen, we could see some blow-up outings. If you wanted to try and trade him now, I do think he’s at peak value, but I also think most managers in your league know that as well, so you may as well ride it out.

Trey Yesavage – Blue Jays

I know people love Yesavage, and he was much hyped coming into this season, but I may use his good last start as a chance to trade him away. His 4.63 SIERA since May 15th is tied to his 87 Location+. Maybe it’s the arm injury from earlier in the year or a larger issue for Yesavage, but his command is just not great. He has a limited pitch mix that relies a lot on his splitter, but remember that Yesavage also had an 11.3% walk rate and 1.43 WHIP in his 14 MLB innings in 2025 before the postseason. That’s a really small sample size, but so was his postseason success. I think we put a little too much evidence in that postseason and ignored that he had a 15.3% walk rate in Triple-A last year.

Spencer Arrighetti – Astros

You may have dropped Arrighetti already. I did in our 12-team Rotoworld league, so I don’t think you can find anybody to trade for him, but you can also just move on in shallower formats. He relies so heavily on his curveball for success that he has no room for error if that pitch is even average. His locations have not been great over the last six weeks, which is why we’re seeing the results trend down. He very well could have a hot stretch again later in the summer, but in shallower formats, I don’t think you need to hold and wait for that.

Andrew Abbott – Reds

Andrew Abbott could be the face of the underlying metrics versus surface-level stats conversation. For years, we had no idea how he was succeeding against MLB hitters, but he was. Then he was really bad to start this season, and that made some sense, but now he’s back to pitching well. However, his 2.60 ERA since May 15th is not supported by his 4.86 SIERA, 9.1% K-BB%, or 97 Stuff+. I know that Abbott succeeds because his curve has proved really hard to hit, and he may always outpitch his peripherals, but I think this strong stretch is the perfect time to try and trade him away and not have to play this game.

Brandon Young – Orioles

I’m just not a believer in Young, and I covered why in detail in my streaming starting pitcher article last week. He has a decent fastball and locates well, but he doesn’t miss bats and tries to live on getting weak contact in the zone. For me, that’s just not a recipe for continued success at the MLB level unless you have elite locations or a truly deep pitch mix. Young doesn’t have those things.

Robbie Ray – Giants

Ray has a 4.17 ERA since May 15th, which may cause you to feel some optimism, but I’d rather use that as a chance to try and trade him for something more stable. He seems to be all over the place from a pitch mix standpoint, leaning far into his sinker despite his four-seamer historically being the far better pitch. His Stuff+ grade is way down over this stretch, and he has just a 5% K-BB% because he’s struggling through his pitch mix identity crisis. I’d rather not ride the identity crisis with him.

Nick Martinez – Rays

Coming into the season, you would have never trusted a 3.27 ERA from Martinez over 57.2 innings, but he has pitched well enough this year that I think people are starting to believe. In a 15-teamer, I have no problem holding onto him because he has just been consistent. However, his 4.76 SIERA is due to the fact that his 10.8% K-BB% is well below average and his Stuff+ is too. We know Martinez is not a guy with great raw stuff, and I really try to avoid holding onto pitchers whose K-BB% is so far below average. It’s just too much contact allowed for me.

J.T. Ginn – Athletics

I like J.T. Ginn, and I’ve had him in a few places while he is pitching this well, but I think we always knew that a pitcher with a 21% strikeout rate who pitches in a brutal home park was a bit of a risk. Over his last four starts, we’re starting to see some of those cracks. He has a 4.30 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 17% strikeout rate in those four starts, three of which came at home. Batters aren’t crushing the ball off of him, but he is giving up a lot of contact and a few home runs. I’m not sure you can get much for him in a trade, but he’s still a pitcher I would much rather start in good matchups on the road, and so that limits his fantasy use case for me.

Shane McClanahan – Rays

McLanahan has a 90 Location+ since May 15th, and that maybe shouldn’t surprise us given all his past injuries. It’s nice that he’s back to throwing 96 mph, and that suggests his arm is healthy, but he also hasn’t pitched in two years and hasn;t thrown over 115 innings since 2022. There’s a good chance that he is starting to fatigue a bit, and that’s impacting the locations, which has impacted his strikeouts since he doesn’t have the pure stuff he did before. I don’t think you HAVE to trade McClanahan because the stuff is improving, and if he gets the command back, he could have a nice run of production. However, I could see the logic in waiting for him to have a couple of good starts and then trade him away for somebody with slightly more reliable health in case the end of the season continues to be inconsistent for Sugar Shane.

Casey Mize – Tigers

I’ve never been a huge Mize fan, so maybe this is my bias, but his 2.38 ERA since May 15th comes with a 3.28 SIERA and 91 Stuff+. He is missing bats, and the splitter is back to looking like a really strong pitch, but his slider isn’t getting whiffs, and even in his 10-strikeout game against the Yankees, he had just 13 total whiffs while getting 10 strikeouts. That’s elite efficiency. Much like some of the other recommendations on here, this is not saying Mize is bad or that you need to move on. This is me saying that I still think his overall arsenal makes me think that he’s more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher whose strikeout rate will come down to something closer to 24-25%. If you have somebody in your league who believes in his current level, I would entertain making that move.