Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: A.J. Ewing arrives in style, Travis Bazzana runs wild

Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

Last week, I highlighted Travis Bazzana and Estury Ruiz as stolen base targets and they combined to steal nine over the last seven days.

Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.

Full Season Stolen Base Leaders

Just look at Nasim Nuñez go! He’s a true throwback as an elite defender and base runner without being able to hit a lick. If he sticks in the Nationals’ starting lineup, expect him to be on this leaderboard all season long.

While the stolen bases are nice, we’d like for José Ramírez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Fernando Tatis Jr. to pick it up at the plate.

Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders

Hello Travis Bazzana. As predicted, the hit tool (.195 batting average) hasn’t come around yet at the major level while the on-base skills (.400 on-base percentage, 21.8% walk rate) have in a big way. He’s converted his trips to first base with enough stolen bases to give tremendous fantasy value.

Even in a part-time role, Esteury Ruiz can provide fantasy value with his legs.

Often overlooked, Brayan Rocchio has been very productive this season with three home runs, seven stolen bases, and a .738 OPS.

Stolen Base Disappointments

While still nearly on pace for a 30-30 season, Zach Neto has been inefficient on the base paths while watching his strikeout rate balloon and batting average sink to scary levels.

Ozzie Albies has attempted just one stolen base in the past month and appears to be grounded due to his lack of success there.

Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

The Minnesota Twins led the way with 11 bases stolen against them over the past week and didn’t catch a single runner.

A majority of those came in both their weekend series against the Guardians while Ryan Jeffers was the behind the plate.

For all of his success as a hitter this season (six home runs, .948 OPS, and 5th-ranked catcher in the FanGraphs Player Rater), Jeffers has never been a stout defender. His value there is anchored by being a good framer without throwing out many base stealers. Last season, his 19% caught stealing rate was 11th-lowest among all catchers with at least 500 innings caught and his struggles there to begin the season don’t breed much confidence.

Otherwise, there was no discernible trend among Twins’ starting pitchers. Relievers Anthony Banda and Luis Garcia were on the mound for most of these stolen bases, but it’s difficult to target them. Especially when the aforementioned Travis Bazzana manufactured his own run against Banda and Jeffers on Friday.

This weekend, the Twins are matched up with the speedy Brewers. So, check out David Hamilton, Joey Ortiz, Garrett Mitchell, or Sal Frelick if you need cheap speed.

Past them, the Nationals surrendered 10 stolen bases over the past week.

A huge portion of those came in one disastrous eighth inning on Sunday, Gus Varland imploded against the Marlins as they successfully stole four bases on him and catcher Drew Millas en route to a three-run inning which gave them the lead.

Varland had been mostly stout in relief until that point and the Marlins didn’t exactly hit him around either, scoring those three runs on two walks and two singles. They simply executed two double steals.

Millas and fellow catching mate Keibert Ruiz are both generally poor against base stealers as well. The Nationals face off with the Orioles and Mets in their next two series, so check out Carson Benge, the newly promoted A.J. Ewing, Marcus Semien, or Leody Taveras if you’re really desperate for stolen bases.

A Necessary Jolt

I just mentioned Mets prospect A.J. Ewing. He was promoted yesterday to give the team a jolt and did in a major way with three walks, a stolen base, a triple, two runs scored, and two RBI in his major league debut on Tuesday night.

While the bat may be a bit in question for the 21-year-old rookie (who was in High-A one year ago), his speed and patience are not. He was chomping at the bit for that first stolen base too, going before Tigers’ reliever Burch Smith had even started his movement to the plate.

Plus, that patience and pitch selection have been a carrying tool for him as a minor leaguer. He stole 70 bases last season across three levels – yes you read that right, 70 – and will have a big, flashing green light whenever he reaches base, which could be often.