Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: Henry Bolte heating up, Giants catchers struggling

Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.

Full Season Stolen Base Leaders

Nasim Nuñez just keeps doing it. He’s started 16 of the Nationals’ last 17 games and adds a great wrinkle of speed and defense to their strong lineup.

Jackson Merrill has surged up this leaderboard after only stealing one base all of last season.

Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders

Victor Robles is back for the Mariners in a part-time role and still finding plenty of opportunities to steal bases.

Henry Bolte is heating up, playing every day, swiping bags, and is now the Athletics’ lead-off hitter.

Stolen Base Disappointments

Mets’ rookie A.J. Ewing has one of the fastest spring speeds in the league, but can’t quite get on track as a base stealer. He was just 1-for-4 this past week and it may be a skill that comes with some more experience.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

It was a relatively slow week for stolen bases across the league with no team allowing more than nine. The Giants led the way with those nine steals against them, and we’ve been somewhat waiting for them to climb this leaderboard.

They traded defensive stalwart Patrick Bailey away on May 9th in pursuit of more offensive fire power. Since then, their .790 OPS as a team is second-highest and the 51 stolen bases they’ve given up are tied for the second-most. So, mission accomplished!

Without Bailey, Daniel Susac had taken the lionshare of reps at catcher. He’s very solid defensively as a plus framer and plus thrower with a 29% caught stealing rate, which is a good bit better than league average.

Yet, he went on the injured list last week with a back strain. Now, Eric Haase and Drew Cavanaugh are splitting catcher duties.

Haase is a 33-year-old journeyman who’s never had a positive fielding run value at catcher via Baseball Savant and still gets reps in the outfield. Cavanaugh was recently promoted from Triple-A, has not caught a runner yet in four tries, and has a 45 fielding grade via FanGraphs.

It’s also worth noting that Robbie Ray and Logan Webb are two of the worst pitchers in baseball at holding runners on. Ray specifically allows some of the biggest jumps by base stealers among any left-handed pitcher in the league. Each let up a stolen base in their most recent start against the Braves and should be targeted when seeking stolen bases.

The Giants are scheduled to face the Rockies and Blue Jays over the next week with Ray and Webb each on tap for starts in Coors Field. Look for Jake McCarthy, Ezequiel Tovar, Willi Castro, or Andrés Giménez to supply cheap speed.

Hello Mr. Herbstreit

I’m sure many of you saw College Football Commentator Kirk Herbstreit’s nonsensical diatribe about the state of baseball a few days ago. If you didn’t, here it is.

He hit all the pressure points of the average old man yelling at a cloud. Like beckoning for the next Tony Gywnn, lamenting “launch angle” (which he put in question marks for some reason), and yearning for the return bunting and small ball tactics.

Yet, one of his foolish remarks stuck in my craw. We don’t even have to review Ted Williams promoting pulled fly balls and the concept of a launch angle generations ago or the fact that baseball’s ratings and attendance are remarkably high.

Herbstreit said, “Where did the athletic ability go…Base stealing-hell just good base running and SPEED?!?”

Is he watching the same game we are? He’s a self-documented Reds fan and he just missed Elly De La Cruz over the last three seasons? Does he not see the unbelievable athletic ability of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Byron Buxton, or Konnor Griffin? Or the fact that three of the four seasons with the most stolen bases since the mound was lowered in 1969 were the last three seasons.

It’s sad that these faulty talking points are not only regurgitated by the worst people you’ve ever met, but amplified by some of the largest figures in sports media who clearly don’t follow the game closely.

Maybe Kirk should be tuning in to this fantasy baseball steals report so he can keep better track of the base stealing he clearly cares so deeply for.