Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.
Eric Samulski breaks down the recent news and top performers from across Major League Baseball.
Full Season Stolen Base Leaders
| Player | SB | CS |
| José Ramírez | 24 | 2 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 24 | 3 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 23 | 4 |
| Oneil Cruz | 21 | 4 |
| Randy Arozarena | 18 | 4 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 16 | 4 |
| Jakob Marsee | 16 | 9 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 15 | 7 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 15 | 8 |
| José Caballero | 15 | 6 |
José Ramírez is (tied) for the league-lead in stolen bases at 33 years old. Appreciate one of the best to ever do it while he’s still doing it.
Ronald Acuña Jr., albeit inefficiently, has surged his way up this leaderboard. Almost perfectly timed, he’s now day-to-day with another potential hamstring flare up after running out a ground ball.
Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders
| Player | SB | CS |
| José Ramírez | 4 | 0 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 4 | 0 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 4 | 1 |
| Trea Turner | 3 | 1 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 3 | 2 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 3 | 0 |
| Blake Dunn | 3 | 0 |
| Matt McLain | 3 | 0 |
| A.J. Ewing | 3 | 0 |
Blake Dunn has been the Reds’ lead-off hitter in 13 of their last 16 games and has great speed. If that continues, he should be a great source of cheap speed.
A.J. Ewing finally seems to have found a rhythm as a base stealer and is currently riding a six-game hit streak.
Stolen Base Disappointments
| Player | SB | CS |
| Jakob Marsee | 16 | 9 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 15 | 8 |
| Chandler Simpson | 14 | 8 |
| Cedric Mullins | 10 | 6 |
| Zach Neto | 10 | 6 |
| Austin Martin | 8 | 5 |
| Cody Bellinger | 7 | 4 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 6 | 5 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 6 | 5 |
| Daylen Lile | 5 | 3 |
| Steven Kwan | 3 | 1 |
| Cole Young | 2 | 3 |
| Jose Altuve | 1 | 2 |
| Willy Adames | 1 | 2 |
| Ozzie Albies | 1 | 3 |
| Mookie Betts | 0 | 2 |
The inefficiency at the top of this leaderboard is shocking.
Chandler Simpson’s has gotten so bad that he may have been given a red light not attempting a stolen base over the last week. He also only started three games over the last week and didn’t have a hit, so keep an eye out.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
Two teams who don’t often let up many stolen bases, the Reds and Padres, each allowed 12 over the past week.
As for the Reds, it’s difficult to figure out why or how this happened. They faced the Padres and Cardinals, who each run a bit, but not to this degree. Tyler Stephenson was behind the plate for most of them and he’s been solid against the run. Most of their starting pitchers don’t struggle to hold runners on either.
That is, with the exception of Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer who both flash on Baseball Savant’s Net Bases Prevented leaderboard for pitchers. Abbott has little excuse as a lefty and wasn’t part of last week’s onslaught either.
Singer was a bit more though, with two stolen bases coming in the four innings he pitched. If nothing else, he’s someone to target. There isn’t as strong of a signal as we usually find in this piece though.
The Padres case is even more strange. Entering the week, they’d allowed the eighth-fewest stolen bases in the league and have been stout in the run game since acquiring Freddy Fermín at the trade deadline last season.
To break it down further, the Padres only allowed five stolen bases during their first six games of the week. And none of which came with one of their starting pitchers on the mound.
Then, on Tuesday night, the Reds stole a whopping seven bases. Two of which came with starter Lucas Giolito on the mound and Fermín was behind the plate for all seven.
When zooming out and considering this along with the rest of their week, a trend could be developing where opposing teams are playing so desperate against their fantastic bullpen that they’re more willing to run. Again, it’s interesting to track, but not the type of trend where it’s worth recommending base stealing streamers against the Padres this week.
Turn of the Mack
The Marlins have had a monumental turnaround against base stealers, and it’s mostly due to promoting Joe Mack to be their starting catcher.
He debuted on May 4th. Before then, the Marlins allowed 42 stolen bases and caught just three runners. An almost impossible feat of defensive ineptitude that was spurned by Agustín Ramírez’s massive deficiencies behind the plate, and now he’s at Triple-A trying to improve there.
Since then, in total, they’ve allowed 23 stolen bases and caught 13 runners. Mack specifically has thrown out 10 of 26 base stealers and it’s hard to figure out if his arm or his pop time is more impressive.
That 38% caught stealing rate is the fourth-best among all catchers who’s played at least 200 innings as he’s already asserted himself as one of the better defensive catchers in the game.
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