Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: Jordan Lawlar is back, Reds may have a problem, and injuries strike

Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.

Full Season Stolen Base Leaders

Bobby Witt Jr. has surged to the top of the league in stolen bases. That’s great because he’s yet to hit for much power.

Sadly, Oneil Cruz, Ronald Acuña Jr., and José Ramírez were all lost to injuries this week. For Acuña, it was another hamstring strain and we should be concerned as to whether or not he’ll continue to be so aggressive when he does return.

Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders

Freshly healthy Jordan Lawlar hit the ground running, literally, with three quick stolen bases plus this fantastic catch in center field.

Jake Mangum is filling in for Cruz with the Pirates and can be a great source of cheap speed off the waiver wire in deeper leagues.

Stolen Base Disappointments

Chandler Simpson’s last successful stolen base came on May 11th. Since then, he’s been caught four times and hasn’t even attempted one since May 25th.

Ceddanne Rafaela is still trying to run himself out of this base steal slump and has only been successful in one of three tries in his last seven games.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

A trend has developed with the Cincinnati Reds. 10 bases were stolen against them over the past week, the second straight where they led the league in such. Now, they’ve allowed the fourth-most steals as a team this season and have the sixth-lowest caught stealing rate.

Funny enough, they opened up big leads over the Mets on both Monday and Tuesday and they didn’t steal a base in either game. So, 10 bases were stolen on them in four games from last Wednesday through Sunday.

The bulk of which came last Friday against the Diamondbacks, who stole five. Three of those came with Nick Lodolo on the mound who flashes as one of the worst left-handed pitchers at managing the run game. One of those steals directly impacted the outcome of the game too when Jordan Lawlar was hit by a pitch with one out, stole second, and came around to score on a single to tie the game.

Andrew Abbott is also on that lefty pitcher leaderboard and Arizona attempted two stolen bases against him Sunday. One runner was caught, but teams are showing a very clear willingness to run against the Reds, much more so over the last few weeks specifically, and we must take note of it.

Over the next week, the Reds will face the Yankees and Brewers. Those two teams are tied for the third-most steals in the league and will likely push the envelope. José Caballero remains on the waiver wire in many leagues and Anthony Volpe with five steals in 23 games is an option as well. David Hamilton, Cooper Pratt, Garrett Mitchell (who hasn’t successfully stolen a base in a month), and Sal Frelick are options as well.

Dirty 30-30

We may have become a bit too accustomed to sensational individual performances in terms of stolen bases since the rule changes to make them easier ahead of the 2023 season. Mainly, 30-30 seasons.

Seven players went 30-30 last year, the most in major league history. The season before that, there were three and Francisco Lindor falling one stolen base short after missing two weeks to close the season with a back injury. There were four the season before and Kyle Tucker was just one home run short.

Between them, we saw Ronald Acuña Jr. put up the first 40-70 season, Shohei Ohtani the first 50-50, José Ramírez falling just one home run short of 40-40, and Juan Soto missing that same mark by two steals.

The new rules opened the floodgates for these sensational personal accolades.

However, that’s not the case this season. Currently, the only players with a shot at going 30-30 are Pete Crow-Armstrong and James Wood. Oneil Cruz would be on pace, but he likely won’t get that opportunity since he’s on the injured list with a fractured hand.

Some more players could put themselves in range with big second halves or an added willingness to run, but this is a huge break from the last two seasons as the league is less willing to steal.

I shared this data about a month ago now showing that stolen base attempts and success were down across the league compared to last season. While slightly better now than it was then, it’s still important to note.

(I thought it was important to include the per PA numbers because despite being the same actual date one year in the past, the same exact number of games hadn’t been played.)

Success rate is mostly the same, players are just running less.

I’m not sure if I can explain that without digging far deeper. Logic would say that more years with the new rules have made teams better at combatting them, but that small of a change in success rate wouldn’t seem to be the full driver. Offense across the league is down slightly. Walks are also up slightly.

Again I’m not sure what to make of this besides the fact that players are attempting fewer stolen bases.