Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.
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Full Season Stolen Base Leaders
| Player | SB | CS |
| Nasim Nuñez | 33 | 4 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 30 | 5 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 26 | 5 |
| José Ramírez | 24 | 2 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 23 | 6 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 21 | 9 |
| Oneil Cruz | 21 | 4 |
| Chandler Simpson | 21 | 11 |
| José Caballero | 20 | 7 |
| Konnor Griffin | 20 | 1 |
Nasim Nuñez still leads the league in steals and is still playing everyday. It’s also worth noting that CJ Abrams has sat against three of the last six left-handed pitchers the Nationals have faced and Nuñez played shortstop in all three of those games. He continues to find ways to add value to the team.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has quietly put himself on close to a 40 steal pace with a .280 batting average. That’s something.
Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders
| Player | SB | CS |
| Konnor Griffin | 5 | 0 |
| Kahlil Watson | 4 | 0 |
| Ketel Marte | 3 | 0 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 3 | 0 |
| Tyler Tolbert | 3 | 1 |
| Jake Mangum | 3 | 0 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 3 | 0 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 3 | 1 |
| Sung-Mun Song | 3 | 0 |
It’s disappointing that Konnor Griffin was just beginning to surge before recently tearing a tendon in his left ring finger. Since coming off the injured list with a strained forearm on June 26th, he went 11-for-36 with six stolen bases and wasn’t caught.
Tyler Tolbert made history over the last few days when he recorded a hit in 12 consecutive at-bats, tying the major league record. He also stole 21 bases in a part-time role last season across 64 games, so it’s worth taking his speed seriously in deep leagues.
Kahlil Watson is a solid deep league dart throw for power and speed while he’s playing everyday.
Stolen Base Disappointments
| Player | SB | CS |
| Jakob Marsee | 18 | 10 |
| Zach Neto | 11 | 8 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 12 | 6 |
| Austin Martin | 9 | 6 |
| A.J. Ewing | 9 | 6 |
| Andy Pages | 8 | 6 |
| Daylen Lile | 8 | 5 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 7 | 4 |
| Anthony Volpe | 7 | 4 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 6 | 5 |
| Maikel Garcia | 5 | 3 |
| Jose Altuve | 2 | 2 |
| Willy Adames | 2 | 2 |
| Ozzie Albies | 1 | 3 |
| Mookie Betts | 1 | 2 |
Zach Neto’s last successful stolen base came on June 13th. He’s only attempted two since then and was caught both times.
We love Anthony Volpe’s 11 attempted steals in 41 games. The hope is that he can be a bit more efficient.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
Two teams stood out last week with 13 stolen bases allowed, the Astros and Nationals.
The Astros deserve a bit more attention because in addition to the 13 steals, they also caught four runners. Something must be up for their opponents to attempt 17 stolen bases across six games.
Six of those successful attempts came on Saturday against the Rays, and four were with Hunter Brown on the mound.
While Brown’s only thrown about 30 innings this season due to an injury, he graded out as one of the worst pitchers at holding runners on last season. On average, runners took a 4.7 foot lead with him on the mound last season. The league average is a full foot shorter.
Otherwise, Yainer Diaz was catching for 11 of these 13 stolen bases. He also caught three runners.
Diaz has never been a good defender, but graded out as an above-average throwing per Baseball Savant over the last three seasons. He’s regressed there this season though and if last week is any indication, he could be hunted moving forward.
With that being said, it’s odd that this is the first time the Astros have made it into this column this season. They let up the second-most stolen bases last season and were a mainstay despite being middle-of-the-pack so far. Recently departed Framber Valdez and Victor Caratini are disasters in the run game, so that helped. Still, this feels like a team to target for stolen bases in the second half.
As for the Nationals, they were mostly tormented by the recently injured Konnor Griffin, who stole four bases against them in three games without being caught.
Also, left-handed starter Andrew Alvarez had three bases stolen on him on Tuesday, but has been mostly good at holding runners in general, so there are no serious trends to pull.
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