Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: Ronald Acuña Jr. takes off, Victor Caratini exposed in run game

Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.

Full Season Stolen Base Leaders

Be mindful that Nasim Nuñez and his .503 OPS has sat in three of the Nationals’ last seven games after starting eight in a row before that. Being that poor of a hitter puts his playing time in jeopardy.

Konnor Griffin has been one of the most efficient base stealers in the league. Let’s hope his forearm strain doesn’t keep him out too long so he can get back to it.

Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders

Ronald Acuña Jr. has been on fire since coming off the injured list nearly two weeks ago with five home runs and a 1.004 OPS. These stolen bases are great too. He was one of the least efficient base stealers in the league before this hot week, so let’s hope he’s gotten over some type of hump physically and is back to running well.

Anthony Volpe has mostly maintained his spot in the Yankees’ lineup as Jose Caballero has returned from the IL. In nine games since, Volpe has started six at shortstop and has been playing well defensively again.

Now with Aaron Judge being banged up, Caballero drew a start in right field on Tuesday. That could only further open the door for Volpe to take his shortstop job back full-time.

Stolen Base Disappointments

Zach Neto is having one of the least efficient yet most aggressive base stealing seasons in the modern era so far. It’s a marvel the Angels haven’t turned his green light red or even yellow yet.

Jakob Marsee went 0-for-3 trying to steal over the past week. With just a .616 OPS, his tremendous defense in center field is the only thing saving him from a demotion to Triple-A at the moment.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

Somehow, 13 bases were stolen successfully against the Twins over the past week and they only caught one runner. That pushed them ahead of the Marlins for the most allowed this season. Let’s figure out why.

Of those 13 steals, 11 came with Victor Caratini behind the plate.

Since Ryan Jeffers was injured a few weeks ago, Caratini has started 10 of the Twins’ last 15 games at catcher. On the season in total, he’s only thrown out seven of 40 would-be base stealers. That comes out to a measly 18% caught stealing rate, ninth-lowest among all catchers with at least 200 innings played so far.

Caratini was even worse at throwing out runners last season. They went 57-for-64 against him, which comes out to a dreadful 11% caught stealing rate. That was third-worst in the league among catchers who played at least 400 innings only trailing the Marlins duo of Liam Hicks and Agustín Ramírez. Neither of those two are starting catchers in the major leagues right now.

With the slowest pop time in the league and multiple seasons as a terrible catcher in the run game, perhaps we and the Twins should have seen this coming.

Even worse for the Twins’, Caratini’s deficiencies practically cost them a game on Saturday.

In a high-scoring, back and forth affair, the Pirates successfully swiped five bags against relief pitchers between the sixth and eighth innings. Two of those stolen bases led to insurance runs before the Twins led a comeback effort that ultimately fell short as the Pirates eked out a one run win.

This is a weakness that will continue to be exploited. With games coming up this week against the Royals and Tigers, look for Kyle Isbel, Isaac Collins, Wenceel Pérez, and Colt Keith to provide cheap speed.