Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: Sam Antonacci runs wild and an important trend takes shape

Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.

Full Season Stolen Base Leaders

Nasim Nuñez just keeps doing it. He’d started eight games in a row before taking a seat for the Nationals’ day game on Thursday after it looked like he was losing his grip on a full-time role. If he’s in the lineup, he will continue to steal.

Despite 50 stolen bases being a pipe dream, Jazz Chisholm Jr. has himself on-pace for nearly 40 as his bat begins to heat up.

Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders

Finally, Sam Antonacci is running. After swiping 50 bags in the minors last season, he’d been caught in four of his seven attempts before this past week. Now that it looks like his sea legs are finally under him, the White Sox lead-off hitter should be a tremendous source of on-base percentage and speed moving forward.

Konnor Griffin is in the top-10 in stolen bases since his debut.

Jackson Holliday has wasted no time stealing two bases in his first seven games off the injured list.

Stolen Base Disappointments

As the fastest player in the league, it’s difficult to reason why Chandler Simpson can’t find more success as a base stealer.

AJ Ewing, while lauded for his speed, has been a terribly inefficient base stealer so far. He still has a green light, so hopefully he can shake free soon.

Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

It was a bit of a slow week for stolen bases with the Braves and Angels allowing most in the league with seven each without catching anyone. There was a lot of rain across the country and tracks were slow, but let’s dive into why runners were so successful against these teams.

Starting with the Braves, they faced the Marlins and Nationals who are first and third respectively in stolen bases as teams.

With both Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy on the injured list, Atlanta has turned to a catching tandem of Chadwick Tromp and Sandy León. The latter seemed to be specifically targeted, with five of the seven stolen base attempts coming with León behind the plate.

León is a straight up warrior: signed as a teenager nearly 20 years ago, recently playing in an independent Mexican League after being cut by the Braves last month, and now back with them since Murphy went on the IL. That being said, he is 37 years old in his 14th major league season and his peak athleticism is far behind him.

He will get picked on by base stealers as long as he’s playing regularly, and both Murphy and Baldwin are meant to be out for a while. The Braves face the Reds this weekend and newly minted lead-off hitter Blake Dunn could swipe a few bags.

Now for the Angels, four of the seven stolen bases they let up came in one game against the Athletics last Thursday. José Soriano started it, but three of the four attempts came after his 6 2/3 innings.

On the other hand, all four came with Logan O’Hoppe behind the plate. He’s a notoriously bad defensive catcher who’s been marginally better against the run game so far this season, going from a 20% caught stealing rate to 24%.

Perhaps that sticks, or maybe it’s just small sample weirdness and O’Hoppe will trend back to his mean. He will be tested this weekend when the Angels face the speedy Rays.

Stolen Bases Are Down?

From writing this column weekly since the beginning of last season, it has felt like steals were down this year.

My suspicions were correct with fewer attempts overall, a lower success rate, and fewer attempts per plate appearance league-wide on the same date last season.

(I thought it was important to include the per PA numbers because despite being the same actual date one year in the past, the same exact number of games hadn’t been played.)

Being down between 11 and 12 percent on total stolen bases and stolen bases per plate appearances is a significant down-shift.

Potentially, being an additional year past the rule changes meant to make stolen bases easier has made organizations more equipped to handle them, amend their pick-off strategies, etc. Also, it’s been an unseasonably cold spring in many parts of the country, which could tie in. These both work to help especially explain the worse success rate.

Lastly, a lot has been made about offense being down. OPS is down a tad across the league. Singles are as well. Walks are up though, and by a higher rate than singles have decreased. A runner is most likely to steal when on first base, and they’re there a reasonably similar amount.

Maybe just an understanding that runs have been tougher to come by has forced teams to steal less often coupled with defenses being better prepared for it. We will keep an eye on this trend as the season goes on.