MLB

Mariners at Padres Prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for April 16

The Seattle Mariners (8-11) to take on the San Diego Padres (12-6) for the third and final game of the series between AL West opponents. San Diego has won both matchups, 4-1 and 7-6.

San Diego had a formidable comeback last night to win 7-6. The Padres scored five runs in the ninth inning to cap off a 6-2 deficit entering the final frame. The Padres have won seven-straight games and 10 out of the last 11 contests.

Seattle’s four-game winning streak was snapped in the last two days versus San Diego, giving the Mariners a 4-2 record over the last six games. The Mariners have now lost seven consecutive road games and have the MLB’s worst batting average (.156) away from home despite having the fourth-best ERA (2.99).

Lets dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

Game details & how to watch Mariners at Padres

  • Date: Thursday, April 16, 2026
  • Time: 8:40 PM EST
  • Site: Petco Park
  • City: San Diego, CA
  • Network/Streaming: MLB TV

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

Odds for the Mariners at the Padres

The latest odds as of Thursday:

  • Moneyline: Seattle Mariners (-120), San Diego Padres (+100)
  • Spread: Mariners -1.5 (+135), Padres +1.5 (-163)
  • Total: 8.5

Probable starting pitchers for Mariners at Padres

  • Thursday’s pitching matchup (April 16): Luis Castillo vs. Walker Buehler
  • Mariners: Luis Castillo

2026 stats: 13.0 IP, 0-0, 6.92 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 14 Ks, 4 BB

2026 Stats: 12.2 IP, 0-1, 4.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 11 Ks, 5 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not!

  • The Padres’ Xander Bogaerts is hitting .284 with 19 hits, 30 total bases, and three home runs over 67 at-bats
  • The Padres’ Manny Machado is hitting .185 with 10 hits, 13, strikeouts, and 16 walks over 54 at-bats
  • The Mariners’ Randy Arozarena is hitting .299 with 20 hits, 27 total bases, and seven RBI over 67 at-bats
  • The Mariners’ Cal Raleigh is hitting .151 with 11 hits, 28 strikeouts, and nine walks over 73 at-bats

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Mariners at Padres

  • The Mariners are 7-12 ATS this season
  • The Padres are 13-5 ATS this season
  • The Nationals are 9-10 to the Over this season
  • The Padres are 9-8-1 to the Over this season

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Mariners and the Padres

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Thursday’s game between the Mariners and the Padres.

  • Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Padres on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Padres at +1.5.
  • Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Over on the Game Total of 8.5

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
  • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
  • Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)



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