When the first details of a new contract emerge, they usually lack key details and context. That’s because key details and context often don’t look as good as the broad-brush, big-picture numbers that are spoon-fed to those who then post the numbers on social media without asking questions.
In time, the details and context inevitably come to light.
With the Rams and Matthew Stafford, the more important detail is this: Stafford gets a $5 million raise in 2026, and the Rams get control of his rights in 2027 through a currently non-guaranteed compensation package.
Albert Breer of SI posted the details on Tuesday. Stafford’s base pay for 2026 has increased from $40 million to $45 million, with another $5 million in playoff incentives available. The extra $5 million comes in the form of a guaranteed roster bonus due in 2028.
Stafford is also due to make $45 million in 2027. But none of the money is currently guaranteed. As of March 2027, the payment becomes fully guaranteed. (The 2027 season also includes another $5 million in playoff incentives.)
Tom Pelissero of NFL Network has added other details regarding the incentive package ($2.5 million for winning the NFC Championship and $2.5 million for winning the Super Bowl) and a phony $100 million compensation package for 2028, which becomes guaranteed on the 10th day of the league year.
Ultimately, Stafford accepted the $5 million raise in base pay in lieu of embracing the possibility of becoming a free agent in 2027. The Rams, in exchange for the extra $5 million, have secured the ability to decide after 2026 whether to keep Stafford — with Stafford not having the ability to leave for another team.
If Stafford would decide to move on after 2026, the Rams surely wouldn’t force him to stay. But the Rams would be in position to receive trade compensation for Stafford, if he decides it’s time to play elsewhere.
The deeper message is that Stafford likely has no desire to play for another team. He had the chance last year to leave for the Raiders or the Giants, and he took less to stay with the Rams.
So if he’s never going to play for another team, why not accept an extra $5 million (with a Super Bowl win unlocking $5 million more) in exchange for a one-way commitment through 2027? He has the freedom to retire after the upcoming season, and at this point it appears that his year-to-year options are to play for the Rams or not play at all.
