It’s spring, when an old man’s fancy turns to thoughts of money. (Then again, that’s basically true in summer, fall, and winter, too.)
The NFL and CBS are indeed working toward a new rights deal, we’re told.
News of another contract between the NFL and CBS emerged via John Ourand of Puck. More recently, Alex Sherman of CNBC echoed the same sentiment, adding that CBS may add another “$1 billion or more” to its current annual rate of $2.1 billion.
Under a new agreement, CBS would retain its Sunday afternoon package that features a pair of weekly windows and, roughly every other week, a late-afternoon (mostly) national game that will often generate gigantic audience numbers.
Here’s the most important wrinkle. In lieu of tacking the new arrangement onto the back end of a current deal that the NFL could (and would) scrap after the 2029 season, the new rate would take effect “as soon as next season,” with an eight-year duration.
And so, basically, CBS could end up paying an extra $4 billion or more over the course of four seasons that had already been contractually settled.
But that’s the price to pay for the hottest property in all of broadcasting. Nothing gathers a live audience like NFL football. With the recent NBA deals making the existing NFL deals look paltry by comparison, Big Shield isn’t content to wait until 2030 to make up the big gap that a smaller sport has managed to finagle.
The thinking is that, after finishing up the CBS contract, that template will then be used for the other companies that hold current windows. Pay more now, and keep the package through 2033. Fox, NBC, ESPN, and Amazon will possibly get the same opportunity to pump up the existing numbers in order to retain their slates of games.
The deals, especially on Sunday afternoons, will surely include full flexibility to slice games away from Sundays for a smattering of other games that would be sold to streamers like Netflix and YouTube, which don’t want an every-week arrangement but which will pay handsomely for a handful of games.
Currently, the NFL gets $10.1 billion per year for its TV rights. That number is destined to increase, sooner than later. And the league has the leverage to make it happen.
The message is simple. Pay more immediately or risk losing your entire package by 2030.
There’s a more concise, four-word version of that same stance. And it’s a safe bet that the networks will dig deep for the one thing that is possibly saving network TV from a full implosion.
Of course, it’s in the NFL’s interests to stay on as many three-letter networks as possible. Even as more and more people pivot to streaming, there’s a fundamental difference between the maximum audience that will watch a game on network TV versus any of the various services that come with a monthly fee.
The political angle also can’t be ignored. A robust presence on network TV will stave off efforts to re-examine the NFL’s broadcast antitrust exemption, which arguably only applies to over-the-air broadcasts and not to cable, satellite, or streaming. Amazingly, the NFL has never faced a court challenge regarding the core question of whether the antitrust exemption evaporated the moment in the 1980s when the league started selling games to anything other than FCC-licensed networks that can be captured at no cost with a TV and a set of rabbit ears.
Regardless, business continues to boom for the NFL. And the league is starting the process to remove even more meat from the multibillion-dollar bone.
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