Starting pitcher targets using zone rates: Why Kyle Harrison, Braxton Ashcraft are surging

At this point in the season, a lot of “hot starts” are beginning to stabilize, and we’re getting a sense of which players have really made meaningful changes or not. On the pitching side, we’re also seeing the pitchers who are going to be most or least impacted by ABS. We know that, across the league, the zone rate is down considerably as pitchers either struggle with the new strike zone or battle the mental hurdle of worrying about an automated strike zone. That has caused some guys who succeed on the fringes of the zone (like Logan Webb) to really struggle to begin the year.

That, and a conversation between Nick Pollack and Eno Sarris on an episode of “The Craft” podcast, gave me the idea for this article. I made a leaderboard of all starting pitchers who have a better than league average zone rate, a better than league average swinging strike rate (SwStr%), and a lower than average rate of pitches in the heart of the zone. In short, this leaderboard should tell us which pitchers are throwing strikes, but keeping those strikes out of the heart of the zone, and are also missing bats at a good clip. Those should absolutely be pitchers we want on our rosters.

I’ll start with the players who qualified for the leaderboard, and then, underneath that, I’ll add a second leaderboard of players who just missed in one category, which could give us another segment of pitchers to choose from on the waiver wire or in trades.

For bookkeeping purposes, the league average zone rate for starting pitchers is 41.6%, the league-average for starters Heart-Zone Rate (H-Zone%) is 25.4%, and the league-average SwStr% for starters is 10.6%. Use those as a baseline for when you analyze the chart below.

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Starting Pitcher Targets

Right away, we get some validation because the vast majority of this list are clear aces. You don’t need a list to tell you that Paul Skenes, Jacob deGrom, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Chris Sale, Shohei Ohtani, Joe Ryan, and Nathan Eovaldi are really good pitchers, but it’s nice to see what. That also lends a bit of credence to our interest in the other names on this list, so let’s dig a little deeper.

Kyle Harrison – Milwaukee Brewers

We’ve heard lots of talk about the Brewers “fixing” Harrison, so it might not be a surprise to see him on this list. He currently has the best swinging strike rate he’s ever posted and the lowest zone rate he’s ever posted. As you might expect, his chase rate (O-Swing%) is 7.8% above his career average. That’s a pretty nice improvement, and a needed one because he is allowing more zone contact than he ever has, and is getting fewer called strikes than he ever has.

A lot of this improvement comes from his four-seam fastball. He has a 16.5% SwStr% on it this year, compared to 13.8% last year and 11.4% in 2024. The pitch is the same exact velocity as last year, with less extension, but almost three inches more vertical movement. He’s also back to using it over 60% of the time in the upper third of the strike zone and is getting 10% more chases out of the zone on it than he did last year. It’s only in the 67th-percentile when it comes to PutAway Rate, so it’s not an elite two-strike pitch, but it is getting him into advantageous counts more often to set up a curveball that has been a good two-strike pitch to righties.

Against lefties, Harrison has just a 19% strikeout rate (compared to 32.6% to righties) because the curve is not as successful there, so you may have to watch for lineups that have a lot of lefties in them. Additionally, as of now, the new changeup isn’t really doing much for Harrison. It has just an average zone rate and a below-average SwStr%, plus it gives up a 53% Ideal Contact Rate (ICR), which is well above the 38% league average for changeups. He uses it in two-strike counts a fair amount to righties, but the PutAway Rate is bad, and it doesn’t get many chases outside of the zone. So, at the end of the day, Harrison’s hot start to the season is really just down to improved fastball shape and command, not much else.

Jack Leiter – Texas Rangers

I get it, you can’t stand Leiter in fantasy baseball because you can’t trust him. You also wonder how he’s here with a 5.45 ERA. Well, for starters, that comes with a 3.54 SIERA, which should make us say, “Why such a major difference?” This season, Leiter is throwing in the heart of the zone 4% less often than last year and living in the shadow and chase zones more often. That could be why his swinging strike rate has gone up from 11.6% to 14.6% (if you use Pitcher List’s SwStr%, which includes foul tips into the catcher’s glove, and you should). Leiter is in the zone less often than last year, but getting over 5% more chases and also getting more called strikes while giving up 5% less contact. Those are all good things.

Like Harrison, Leiter’s four-seam fastball is missing way more bats this year, but his improvement is not tied to a change in shape. Leiter is simply executing better. He’s keeping the four-seamer out of the middle of the zone more often, using it up in the zone more often, and not simply trying to throw it inside to righties but also using it up and away. It’s not a good two-strike pitch for him, but because he is now throwing a cutter and a sinker, hitters can’t sit on Leiter’s four-seamer as much, and he’s able to get it by hitters more often. He’s also seen an improvement in SwStr% on his slider, which is a little slower this year, with more drop, which is allowing to get more chases outside of the zone. His changeup is also much improved, both in terms of command and whiff rates. So why are the results not there?

For starters, command is still an issue for Leiter. Even if he is throwing strikes and not throwing pitches in the heart of the plate, he still has moments each game where he will fail to execute and pitch. When he does, hitters are taking advantage of him far more often than they have been before. His HR/FB rate is up to 27% from 16.7% last year, and he’s sporting a .323 BABIP, which is well up from the .268 we saw last year. His 68% left on base rate is also well below the league average, so the relievers coming in after him aren’t helping. All of which tells me that Leiter is an improving young pitcher who still has some kinks to work out, but is also pitching far better than his surface-level ratios would suggest.

Mike Burrows – Houston Astros

Yes, Mike Burrows has a 5.97, but, much like Jack Leiter, bad luck has played a part in that. He has a .373 BABIP, a 74% left on base rate, and a 4.11 SIERA. What’s funny is that even though he qualified here, his zone rate is actually down over 5% from last year, which has led to fewer called strikes and fewer two-strike counts. He’s getting more chases out of the zone, he’s getting more chases in two-strike counts, and his ICR allowed has fallen from 41% to 34%, which are all things we like to see.

The biggest issue here has been his changeup. It’s his best pitch, but it has a 7% lower zone rate and 10% lower strike rate than last year. That has led to a drop in SwStr% and has also prevented him from using it in two-strike counts as much as he likes to because he can’t locate it well right now. The new shape on his slider, which is harder and with less movement, has led to a huge jump in SwStr% to righties, but it’s not really performing in two-strike counts. I also like that he’s added the sinker for righties because it’s keeping hitters off of his four-seam fastball, leading to less hard contact and more chases outside of the zone now that he is keeping the four-seamer up 17% more often. I still think that this works. I don’t think this is the profile of an ace or a fantasy stud, but if Burrows can find his changeup command again, I think we could be looking at a pitcher who can sport a 3.80 ERA with a decent strikeout rate. Don’t give up just yet.

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Other Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Targets

So, how about the pitchers who just barely failed to qualify in just one category? (For the record, all of Freddy Peralta, Max Fried, Jeffrey Springs, and Landen Roupp were just outside of the criteria in TWO categories, so I left them off this list, but, again, I think it’s a good sign for all four of them that they basically hovered around this list and is another bit of validation for Roupp’s strong start).

Yet again, tons of aces on here (even if I stretched the Zone Rate to allow Dylan Cease and Garrett Crochet). This list still includes those two guys, plus Shota Imanaga, Cole Ragans, Chase Burns, Trevor Rogers, Aaron Nola, Edward Cabrera, and Jesus Luzardo, who all missed when it came to zone rate. That’s forgivable because they all have really high swinging strike rates, even if it’s less than ideal. Logan Gilbert is also throwing too many pitches in the heart of the zone, which could explain his early-season struggles, but he’s qualified everywhere else.

I’ve written about both Parker Messick (article here), Reid Detmers (article here), and Jack Kochanowicz (article here) in detail this year, so I’m not going to include them in the write-ups here, but I encourage you to read those pitch mix breakdowns. I’m fully in on the Parker Messick breakout, and I think that Kochanowicz has established himself as a legitimate streamer, but he doesn’t miss enough bats to be more than that. I also wrote up José Soriano earlier in the season (article here), and while I still believe, for the most part, in his improvement this year, the last two games have shown us that his increased fastball usage can be a bit of a catch-22. It’s a good pitch for him to miss bats with, but it gets hit really hard, so when his command of it isn’t great, and it hasn’t been the last two starts, he’s going to give up home runs.

Matthew Boyd – Chicago Cubs

People have given up on Boyd so quickly, when he really hasn’t pitched poorly. His first outing of the season wasn’t a good one, and then the Padres got to him in one big inning in his second-to-last start. Other than that, he’s been fine. His SwStr% is up to 15.8%, and his overall strikeout rate is 31%. He’s executing his four-seamer up in the zone much better this year, and getting lots more whiffs, which is why he’s turning to it in two-strike counts. He’s also dialed back his curve and sinker usage to focus more on his changeup, which works most of the time. In that start against the Padres, the changeup simply was catching too much of the plate, and he got hit around. I think he’s an easy add if he was dropped by a frustrated manager.

Braxton Ashcraft – Pittsburgh Pirates

Ashcraft was one of the pitchers I featured in my offseason article on undrafted starting pitchers (in 12-team leagues) who could end up inside the top 25. Now, even in that article, I expressed some skepticism about his upside because his four-seam fastball appeared to just be average. Last season, it was 97 mph, but it has below-average extension, just average vertical movement, and is relatively flat, but he kept it low in the zone more than you’d like. He could throw it for strikes, but it got hit hard by both righties and lefties. In that article, I said, “I do worry a little bit about his approach to lefties. If we consider his slider to be a cutter, then he at least has one fastball variation to lefties besides the poor four-seamer. However, a changeup or another pitch that he can throw away would be beneficial and could add more strikeout upside.”

Well, this season, he’s started throwing the four-seamer up in the zone almost 20% more often. While that hasn’t led to a huge jump in swinging strike rate, it has led to far more weak contact. The ICR allowed on his four-seamer has fallen from 44.4% to 27.3%. It’s improved versus both righties and lefties, and that has resulted in him being OK to challenge lefties with high fastballs, and he’s in the zone with the pitch 17% more often to them this year. He’s also turned to his curve as his primary breaking ball this year and is doing a much better job of keeping it low in the zone. That has led to a 21% SwStr% and 36.8% PutAway Rate after posting marks of 13% and 24% last year, respectively. These are all changes that feel sustainable.

Taj Bradley – Minnesota Twins

Earlier in the season, I highlighted Bradley’s new cutter, which is one mph slower than last year, with over two inches more drop and a one-inch more run. He’s throwing it less often to lefties this season and is using it more like a slider, keeping it lower in the zone far more often than he did last year. It’s doing a good job of missing bats, with an 18% SwStr% to righties, which gives him a solid whiff pitch to right-handed hitters to pair with his splitter, which has a 24% SwStr% to lefties. That does make me feel a little better about his swing-and-miss upside than I did coming into the season.

His four-seam fastball had some extra velocity early in the season, but is now averaging 96.5 mph after being at 96.2 mph last year. It does have one inch more vertical movement with less horizontal movement and a bit more extension, which makes it a flatter fastball. Still, it has just a 5.3% SwStr% so far this season and has given up a league-average ICR. Righties in particular are seeing it well with a 55% hard-hit rate allowed. He now has two pitches he can use to get strikeouts, but if he can’t get ahead, then those strikeouts won’t come. I’m more into Bradley than I was coming into the season, but I still think he’s going to wind up much closer to his 3.72 SIERA.

Kumar Rocker – Texas Rangers

I really can’t believe Rocker made this list. He actually kind of did by the skin of his teeth everywhere. I just wanted to include him to say that I don’t really buy this. He had two strong starts against Pittsburgh and the Athletics in Texas, where he allowed three runs on 10 hits in 12 innings while striking out eight and walking three. I think that skewed his results in a way that he was able to sneak onto this list. He’s basically a two-pitch guy with a sinker and slider, and the sinker gets clobbered by lefties. The slider is doing its job and missing bats to righties, but it’s just a league-average pitch in two-strike counts because righties know that’s what he’s going to throw. I still just don’t see it here.