The report that Gabriel Perez, President Trump’s teleprompter operator, was allegedly using his knowledge of the contents of speeches to make prediction-market wagers on Kalshi is a symptom, not the disease.
The current bet-’em-if-you-got-’em vibe creates a constant temptation for those in the know to convert that knowledge into cash. And everyone wants something for nothing.
For those who dabble in stocks, fear of an insider trading indictment has provided a clear deterrent. In the Wild West of prediction markets, the guardrails aren’t as clear. At least, not yet.
If it’s happening with something as obscure as the guy who sees the text of the speech in the machine that projects it to the president, who else may be doing it? And not just as it relates to the many people who have access to the words the president will be saying. For any of the many available prediction markets, there are people who know enough to know what’s going to happen.
Especially in sports. Before information is reported, someone knows it. At some point, reporters know it. What if someone who gathers information for their job presses pause on posting the tweet to visit a prediction market?
Trades, signings, firings, hirings, draft picks. Anything, everything. If there’s a prediction market with outcomes controlled by human decisions, other humans will know about the decisions after they are made and before they become public.
The Perez case should be enough to create fear of getting caught. But too many people think they’re smart enough to get away with it. The easiest way to circumvent detection would be to create a network of people who make the wagers on behalf of those who know what’s going to happen.
With Perez being found out, it makes sense to wonder who else will join him. And also to wonder how many people who think they’re smart enough to get away with it actually are.
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