If, as it appears, quarterback Baker Mayfield doesn’t sign a new contract with the Buccaneers until after the 2026 season, what happens next?
The team will have, in theory, exclusive negotiating rights with Mayfield until the opening of the negotiating window in March. By then, Mayfield may be determined to see what the market will be for him in 2027. (There’s a chance his agents already have an inkling as to the possible options.)
The franchise tag will be available. With a cap number in 2026 of $39.975 million, the 2027 tag would be $47.7 million. As noted by the folks at Spotrac, Mayfield’s current deal has a $30.15 million dead-money charge for 2027. Using the tag would result in Mayfield counting for $77.85 million against the cap in 2027.
They could tag him and trade him, but they’d need to carry the extra $47.7 million in cap space until they do.
Or the Bucs could let him walk away. The market would then determine his value.
That’s where it gets interesting. Via ESPN, Mayfield’s camp pointed to quarterbacks whose contracts are currently north of $50 million in APY: Jordan Love ($55 million), Trevor Lawrence ($55 million), and Brock Purdy ($53 million). Right or wrong, deals of that magnitude were given to players who were drafted and developed by the team that paid them. Veterans rarely get that kind of a contract from a team for which they’ve never played.
It still happens. Kirk Cousins has twice gotten major contracts on the open market. The Vikings made him the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL in 2018, when he left Washington. The Falcons paid him $45 million per year two years ago.
Much of what happens in early 2027 depends on how things go this year. The better his season, the more he’ll make. And the more likely the Bucs will be to find a way to tag him.
That’s where the dog starts chasing its tail. The more likely he’ll break the bank as a free agent, the more likely it becomes that the Bucs will tag him.
Then there’s the possibility that Mayfield’s decision to take a flamethrower to the Bucs wasn’t just Baker being Baker but a strategic move aimed at making them want to move on.
If so, the Buccaneers had better have a good plan for finding a quarterback in 2027. The current options on the roster are Jake Browning, Jalon Daniels, and Connor Bazelak.
Which confirms the point. If Mayfield leaves, they’ll need to find a new starter.
There’s a long way before we get there. But there isn’t. Once the season gets rolling, it’ll be over before we know it. And then the question will be whether it’s over for Mayfield in Tampa.
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