Which hitters are due for a summer power surge? Jo Adell, Wilyer Abreu, more

We know that home runs tend to increase in the summer months. A 2025 article by Garrett Heyd pointed out that warm air means the air molecules are farther apart, which makes the air less dense and allows the ball to travel farther. The article has far more scientific detail, but, for our purposes, warm and more humid weather means the ball travels farther, which is why we tend to see more home runs in the summer.

However, there’s another element here as well. As I covered in my MLB notebook last week, the baseball has changed since the start of the season (because of a manufacturing issue), and that has led to less drag on the baseball, which means batted balls are now flying about five feet farther than they were in the early months of the season. So with warmer weather and a baseball that gets less drag, we should see far more home runs hit over the next couple of months. But which hitters would that impact the most?

In the hopes of trying to get the best sense of current batted ball quality, I limited my search to hitters’ performances from May 20th on. That gave us about a 40-game sample size for most of the hitters, but I set the minimum plate appearances at 40. I then looked at hitters who had been barreling the ball more than league average, pulling the ball in the air around league average, and producing a lower HR/FB rate than average. The thought being that these hitters will naturally run into some more home run luck, but could also see an even bigger spike with the humid weather and the change in the ball.

Hitters Who Are Due to Hit More Home Runs

THE LEAGUE AVERAGE FROM MAY 20TH TO JULY 8TH IS A 7.6% BARREL RATE, 18,7% PULL AIR RATE, AND A 12.6% HR/FB RATE

A few of these guys may see slight increases in home run production in the second half, but have already hit a decent amount since May 20th and have league average (or close to it) HR/FB numbers. Guys like Jackson Merrill, Bobby Witt Jr., Max Muncy, Corbin Carroll, and Dylan Crews aren’t likely to increase their home run pace, but it is worth noting that Merrill and Crews each have six home runs in 42 games since May 20th. That’s about a 22 home run pace over a full season (assuming they don’t play a full 162 games). Those aren’t exceptional numbers, but I think they’re better numbers than most people assume you’re getting from those two. In fact, Crews also has a 47.1% hard-hit rate over that stretch, which is 36th out of 163 qualified hitters. His .262 xBA and .461 xSLG are also much higher than what he has actually produced, and I think Crews could be in for a really nice second half.

Jorge Soler and Luke Raley are also power hitters who we know hit big flys in spurts. They both have been continuing to pull the ball in the air far more than average and barrel the ball well above league average as well. Hot stretches are going to come for both of them at some point. Dalton Rushing may also not play enough games when Will Smith is back, so I’m not going to go into detail on him, bu the does have a 12.2% barrel rate since May 20th and is getting the ball to the pull side in the air, so he likely should not have a below-average HR/FB ratio.

Cal Raleigh – Mariners

It’s probably not a shock that I think Raleigh will hit more than the nine home runs he has through 61 games so far this season. Not just because he had 60 home runs last season, but because he has proven himself to be a consistent 30-plus home run hitter. Now, Raleigh’s 61.5% pull rate since May 20th could be a touch too high. He was at 55.5% last season, so he has always been incredibly pull-focused but is perhaps a bit more so now as he tries to hit his way out of the slump. The injuries could also be taking a toll on his quality of contact, but he has a 10.2% barrel rate in this timeframe, and while that’s low for him, it should amount to more than two home runs, especially when he is getting the ball to the pull side in the air so often.

Mookie Betts – Dodgers

Your buy-low window on Mookie Betts has slammed closed. The veteran was limited by injury early in the season and hit .194/.259/.408 in 25 games by the end of May. From June 1st on, he’s hit .269/.326/.446 with five home runs and 14 RBI. His barrel rate is just above league average, and he’s pulling the ball less than average; however, he is still getting it in the air to the pull side more than most. His exit velocities are not elite, but they’re good enough that he should have a better than 9.4% HR/FB rate over this stretch. The only time he’s been below 9.8% was in his injury-plagued season last year, and he’s up at 10.9% this season, so more home runs should be coming.

Tyler Stephenson – Reds

Stephenson is an interesting name on here. His 8.5% barrel rate and 42.8% pull rate since May 20th are just above league average, but he’s pulling the ball less than normal. Yet, his nearly 33% Pull Air Rate is far above the league average, so even if he’s not pull-centric overall, he is doing a good job of elevating to the pull side. He’s perhaps just elevating too much. His 19.7 degree launch angle this season is well above his 11 degree career mark, and his HR/FB rate is the lowest it’s ever been. I like that he’s trying to elevate the ball to the pull side more than before, and we clearly like his home park, so if he can get his launch angle back just a bit closer to his career norms, we could see a nice power stretch.

Royce Lewis – Twins

Since Royce Lewis came back to the big leagues on June 6th, he’s hitting .255/.320/.455 with five home runs, 13 RBI, and a 12% barrel rate. He’s also pulling the ball over 50% of the time and has the highest Pull Air% on this list at 38%. Now, we know that a high Pull Air% doesn’t automatically mean more home runs, but we also know that more pulled fly balls leave the yard than any other type of contact. With Lewis hitting the ball hard and elevating it to the pull side, it’s a bit surprising to see his HR/FB rate come in at a below-average mark. I’d expect that to change in the hot summer months.

Matt McLain – Reds

Matt McLain could lose his playing time when Ke’Bryan Hayes comes back, so we need to keep that in mind. From May 20th on, he’s hitting .147/.250/.284 with three home runs and a 34% strikeout rate. That’s not very good. He also has a 13.6% barrel rate and has a 17.5% blast rate per contact. Blasts are a Statcast metric that measures when a batter squares up a ball and does so at a high bat speed. According to Statcast research, blasts lead to a .563 batting average, 1.182 slugging percentage, and a +34 Run Value. Non-blasted batted balls average out to a .231 batting average, .295 slugging percentage, and -5 Run Value. So, pretty clearly, Blasts are usually balls that result in impactful contact. Well, McLain has 17.5% blasts/contact since May 20th, which is 52nd among 214 qualified hitters. That type of batted ball quality should not lead to such poor results, which is probably why his .397 xSLG since May 20th is well above his .284 actual slugging percentage. I know McLain is tough to hold onto right now, but there are some encouraging signs in his batted ball data.

Logan O’Hoppe – Angels

O’Hoppe is another fringe one-catcher league catcher that we were hoping to get more production from in drafts. Since May 20th, he’s hitting .243/.264/.383 with three home runs and 15 RBI. That comes with a 24% strikeout rate, which is actually pretty good for O’Hoppe, and a 13.6% barrel rate. He’s pulling the ball in the air just 19.5% of the time over that stretch, but that’s still above league average, and his pull rate and fly ball rate individually suggest that he should be getting to the pull side in the air a bit more often. His 18.1% blasts per contact rate is also well above the 13.3% league average and puts him 47th out of 214 qualified hitters. His 8.6% HR/FB rate just feels too low for a guy with a 15% career rate. The big flys should be coming.

Trevor Larnach – Twins

Larnach is flying a bit under the radar this year because the Twins aren’t particularly good, and Larnach doesn’t really play against lefties, but he has been good. Since May 20th, he’s hitting .310/.378/.481 with four home runs. He does have just a 7.6% barrel rate and 38% hard-hit rate, so he’s not knocking the cover off of the ball, but he has a 26.2% Pull Air rate, so he is getting the ball in the air to the pull side far more often than league average. He also has a 17.4% blast per contact rate, so he’s making damaging contact despite the average barrel rates. Given that and his pull air rate, I think he’s likely deserving of better than an 8.5% HR/FB rate. He’s still going to be more valuable in daily moves leagues, but he can be rostered in more formats.

Hitters Who Need to Pull More to See a Power Spike

THE LEAGUE AVERAGE PULL RATE FROM MAY 20TH TO JULY 8TH IS 41.2%

All of these are hitters who are barreling the ball enough to hit for more power but might need to pull the ball more often. Now, we should note that hitters don’t NEED to pull the ball to hit home runs. Many hitters have enough power to drive the ball out of the park no matter where they hit it. However, we do know that pulled fly balls leave the yard more regularly than any other type of contact, so these hitters looking to pull the ball a bit more often would likely help them to rack up more home runs. Andy Pages may be one of those guys, since he has six home runs in this stretch despite posting a 35.2% pull rate and a league-average Pull Air%. However, his 8.4% HR/FB rate suggests that there is some positive regression coming his way, and there could be more if he looked to get the ball in the air to the pull side more often.

I’ve been a big Blaze Alexander fan for much of the year, and I still think he should be used in many fantasy formats, but I’m not sure we’re going to see a major power bump. He’s hitting the ball harder than he has in years, but his barrel rate is down to 6.7%, and he’s using the whole field more often, so he’s not pulling the ball in the air that often. His approach works for his overall stat line, but not really for home run production. Similarly, Khalil Watson has become a full-time player for the Guardians of late and has a 10.3% barrel rate and above-average blasts per contact. That said, he doesn’t really pull the ball much and has a 16% swinging strike rate, which means he may not make enough contact to really hit enough home runs. Lars Nootbaar also has the second-lowest Pull Air% of anybody on this list at 11.6%. His blast per contact rate is an elite 19.8%, and he has a 10.1% barrel rate, but we’re going to need to see him elevate the ball in the air more often if power is going to come.

Fernando Tatis Jr. – Padres

We knew Tatis was going to see a bit of a power surge after it took him so long to hit his first home run, but I think his pace should continue to increase as the summer goes on. Since May 20th, he has an 11% barrel rate and has 25% blasts per contact, which is the 3rd-best mark in all of baseball. Yet, he has just a 30.5% flyball rate and a 34.5% pull rate, both of which are well below average. That has also led to a below-average 10.3% Pull Air rate; yet, despite that, he still has only a slightly below-average HR/FB rate. So he doesn’t NEED to pull the ball to hit more home runs because he hits the ball so hard, but even a slight uptick in pull rate, with the warm weather supporting him, should lead to plenty more power production.

Wilyer Abreu – Red Sox

Wilyer hit 22 home runs for the Red Sox last season with a 15.2% HR/FB rate, so it’s a bit surprising to see him sitting at just 10 home runs and an 8.1% HR/FB rate on the season despite still posting an above-average barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Since May 20th, he’s actually 11th among qualified hitters in barrel rate and has a 55.6% fly ball rate. Yet, he’s not pulling the ball enough or pulling the ball in the air enough. That’s been a bit of an issue for him all season, with his pull rate down 9% from last year. He’s not making more contact in the zone, so we can’t point to an approach shift that is prioritizing contact over power. I have to think that Wilyer will get back to pulling the ball at his career-norm levels, which should see that HR/FB rate rise back up.

Jo Adell – Angels

You won’t believe me when I say this article was drafted before Wednesday night’s two-homer barrage, but you can see that the stats above don’t reflect Adell’s numbers after Wednesday. Now, I could just say “See what he did on Wednesday” and close the argument for why Adell should hit for more power in the second half, but I should probably give you the spiel I had drafted. Adell has an 8.4% barrel rate since May 20th, which is above average but not great for him. His bat speed remains elite, but I think his swing is a bit steeper than normal, which has led to fewer fly balls and more infield pop-ups when he does elevate the ball. A 14.6% Pull Air rate is not a great mark, but Adell hits the ball hard enough that a 9.4% HR/FB rate just feels wholly unsustainable for a hitter who has a 16.1% career rate.

Austin Riley – Braves

I know, you don’t trust Austin Riley. I get it, but hear me out. Since May 20th, he has a 10.9% barrel rate and is lifting the ball 47% of the time. The issue is that he’s still battling that indecision that led to less contact and just a 32.9% pull rate and 15.4% Pull Air rate over this timeframe. That’s not the Riley we know. It’s also part of the reason he has just a 4.7% HR/FB rate since May 20th. I can’t tell you that Riley will definitely start pulling the ball more, but I can tell you that he’s still hitting the ball hard and trying to elevate it. I can tell you that, on the season, his pull rates aren’t that much different from what we’ve seen from him during his career. An 8.9% HR/FB rate from a career 17.5% hitter just doesn’t seem like something that will withstand the warmer months.