At a time when the scrutiny of prediction markets seems to be increasing, Polymarket has withdrawn a wager based on Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes playing in his team’s Week 1 game against the Broncos.
Via David Purdum of ESPN, Polymarket self-certified the wager on Tuesday. The company withdrew it the next day.
A Polymarket source told Purdum on Friday that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission asked Polymarket and other prediction market operators to remove such wagers. Polymarket did.
Kalshi, as of Friday, continued to offer the wager.
The NFL has objected to prediction markets based on injuries. The league told ESPN that it regards the Mahomes wager to be injury-related.
NFL executive V.P. Jeff Miller also told ESPN that he hopes the CFTC will prohibit such wagers, and that the CFTC eventually will create a process pursuant to which the NFL will be asked whether such wagers are viable before they are posted.
That’s all the league can really do, given that it has no formal relationship with Kalshi or Polymarket.
The issue of inside information hovers over wagers of this nature. Certain people will know whether Mahomes is actually planning to play. Those people can either make wagers, or they can share the information with others who will.
And that continues to be one of the biggest threats to the overall integrity of all wagers placed on football, through sportsbooks or prediction markets. Certain people have access to information that the public doesn’t, and that information easily can be misused.
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